US politics are as polarised as they has ever been, and the ongoing midterm elections are certainly showing the symptoms of that polarisation.
35 out of 100 Senate seats are up for grabs this year, as are all 435 seats in the House of Representatives.
As things stand, the results still hang on a knife’s point. The two main parties are currently tied in the race for the Senate with 48 seats a piece, while the Republicans have secured a lead over the Democrats in the race for the House, currently standing at 203 to 187 respectively.
The Democrats have performed better than expected, with Republican candidates running way tighter races than they were expecting.
The only Senate seat to be flipped (so far) is in Pennsylvania, where Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman defeated celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz (R).
There are now, as of writing, three critical Senate races could decide the outcome of these elections, in the states of Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.
In Arizona, ex-astronaut Mark Kelly (D) is facing off against venture capitalist Blake Masters (R), an endorsee of Donald Trump. Kelly currently has a thin lead over Masters, but around 25% of the votes are yet to be counted.
In Nevada, incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is trailing her opponent Adam Laxalt (R) with 80% of votes counted.
As things stand, the Republicans look set to win Nevada, and the Democrats to win Arizona, taking the overall count of Senate seats to 49 each.
The race that is drawing perhaps the most attention is in Georgia, where Democratic incumbent Rev. Raphael Warnock is fending off a challenge by Republican candidate Herschel Walker, who enjoys the backing of Trump.
This race is especially interesting. Georgia, a traditionally conservative seat, voted for Warnock in 2020 in another extremely contentious race.
The state also went blue in that year’s Presidential election, causing a major upset for the Republicans and contributing to Biden’s historic win.
As things stand, both candidates have around 49% of the vote, with Warnock leading Walker by around 4,000 votes. It is expected that no clear winner will be decided in this round of voting.
As is custom in Georgia, a run-off election will be held to decide the winner, expected to be held in early December.
If the likely outcomes are realised in Arizona and Nevada, then the Georgia run-off will decide the overall outcome of these elections.
These midterms were widely expected to be a significant Republican victory, and a litmus test for Donald Trump’s influence over the party.
Things have not turned out that way. Whilst the House is likely to turn red again, the numbers are no where near the landslide the Republicans were hoping for.
If these results are interpreted as a vote of confidence in Trump, support for him is apparently lukewarm at best. The MAGA movement he represents, whilst still not to be underestimated, is gradually losing momentum.
A Republican candidate is still incomplete without a Trump endorsement these days, due to his unwavering support form the Republican base. However, bases do not win elections, swing voters do, and the outside-the-loop, un-politician-esque flair that lured so many floaters to him in 2016 is all but gone.
Trump also faces threats from within his party as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis wins re-election. DeSantis is seen by a growing number of Republicans as a more viable Presidential candidate, and his resounding success in Florida (traditionally a swing state) shows he is capable of turning swing voters to his side.
Trump is like marmite; there are now very few Americans who do not have strong opinions on him one way or the other. With these inconclusive midterm results, and DeSantis’s growing popularity within the GOP, Trump’s prospects to return to the White House are looking increasingly bleak.
Although the likelihood of a second Trump Administration is diminishing by the day, I still fear for the United States. None of the unsuccessful Republican Candidates have (yet) denied the results of these midterms, but accepting a democratic outcome is the bare minimum we should expect from a nation like the US.
A second Trump term would be catastrophic for the US, not just domestically, but internationally. He is actively hostile to international organisations such as the UN and NATO, diplomatically inept, as well as being deep in the pockets of Vladimir Putin.
DeSantis would, in my opinion, be a shoe-in for President if he ran against Biden. Biden is quickly becoming a liability for the Democrats for one reason; he’s too old. He’s slow, prone to gaffs, and a less-than-talented orator. I do not see him running another successful Presidential campaign. Not against DeSantis, at least.
Trump vs Biden round 2 would be a more interesting race. Biden may be old, but Trump is no spring chicken himself at 76 years of age. Trump will have plenty of ammunition to use against Biden in a campaign, but I doubt that the American people would want to subject themselves to another 4 years of Trump.
In any case, despite the dire straits my own domestic politics finds itself in, I still thank my lucky stars that I am not American.
stay safe
/e