Rishi Sunak today met with the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in Windsor, Berkshire to reach what is hoped to be the final agreement on Northern Ireland in the long-running Brexit saga. At the end of their meeting, both leaders emerged all smiles at a joint press conference to announce the Windsor Framework, a ground-breaking deal between the UK and EU that scraps the damaging and divisive Northern Ireland Protocol and removes the perceived border in the Irish Sea. In theory, this has made trade between Northern Ireland and mainland UK more efficient and streamlined, and aims to restore the power-sharing government in Stormont.
The main proposal of the new framework is the introduction of new “green” and “red” lanes for shipping into Northern Ireland; green for goods staying in NI, where shipments are subject only to checks when suspected of smuggling or contamination and with significantly less paperwork, and red for goods bound for the Republic and wider EU, subject to normal EU processes and all associated checks and paperwork.
The framework recognises that NI has privileged access to both UK markets and the EU single market, but being a part of a non-EU member state, should not be subject to the same amount of EU law as EU member states. As such, the Windsor Framework gets rid of over 1,700 pages of EU law, and NI is now only subject to around 3% of EU law. Being as it still has access to the single market, EU law still has a role in NI, but only those laws that are absolutely necessary to maintain NI’s Single Market access.
However, the framework also acknowledges that as NI is no longer an EU member, when new EU law regarding agriculture, customs, and goods are introduced, Stormont should be given a say. That comes in the form of the “Stormont Break”, an emergency mechanism based on the existing “Petition of Concern” in the Good Friday Agreement, meaning that if 30 or more MLAs from 2 or more parties sign a petition against a new piece of EU legislation, the Stormont Break will be triggered. For the Break to be successful, a public statement outlining their concerns with the legislation must be produced, and if both the UK and EU agree, the legislation will be dropped. The Break is not a direct veto, but offers Stormont a check on the power of EU should it need it (and also acts as a sneaky incentive to get the DUP to agree to power-sharing again).
With the introduction of the Windsor Framework, the old Northern Ireland Protocol introduced by Boris Johnson (who was conspicuously absent from the House of Commons chamber as Sunak made his statement) has been scrapped, meaning that NI will once again be subject to the same VAT duties as the rest of the UK. The European Medicines Agency will no longer have approval over medicines bound for Northern Irish markets, now subject to the same UK standards as those on mainland Britain. Also, red tape surrounding British food being sold in NI has been cut, and the same food will be now available in all parts of the UK.
This agreement has been met with widespread approval, and scattered acclaim, by almost all parties in Westminster. All except the DUP, who have committed to scrutinising the text of the agreement fully before deciding to accept or reject it. A major motive for this new agreement that so many public servants have worked so hard for was to restore a power-sharing devolved government in Stormont, but despite all that work by British and European diplomats, all of the deciding power now lies with the DUP. The small Unionist party are now the only ones who can restore democratically elected government to Northern Ireland.
The initial comments made by DUP MPs in the House after Rishi Sunak made his statement were mixed; some members, such as Jeffrey Donaldson, seemed supportive of the Windsor Framework and while not accepting it outright before due consideration, still voiced their optimism. Others, like Ian Paisley Jnr, seemed hostile to the deal, ands stood only to voice criticism of it. Whilst I am optimistic that this agreement has brought us closer to restoring power-sharing in Stormont, I get the feeling that the DUP will try to find any excuse not to accept this deal. If they do re-enter power-sharing, the DUP will be in a minority and have a Sinn Fein First Minister in Michelle O’Neill, which is something I fear many DUP representatives will be loathe to accept. I cannot recall a time when a party as small as the DUP held so much power in one decision. We can only hope that cooler heads prevail.
One thing is certain, however; Rishi Sunak has gambled a lot of political capital on this new deal. Ever since the UK left the EU, every Conservative government has pledged to “get Brexit done”, and in the wake of the ensuing political and economic shitshow we have been dealing with as each of those successive governments have failed on that pledge, the UK has been sinking lower and lower in international rankings. The people of Britain have become poorer, and the UK has lost power and respect not only within the European community, but the international community also. It only adds insult to injury that the British people were promised such wonderous things by the hucksters who led the Leave campaign, none of which has or will ever come true. The decision to leave the EU was short-sighted, ill-conceived, and hilariously ill-judged even without the looming pandemic and War in Ukraine in consideration, and by any sensible estimation has thus been an unmitigated disaster. The situation in Northern Ireland is seen as somewhat of a litmus test on the success of Brexit as a whole as the most pervasive and lingering issue stemming from Brexit.
Sunak has already proven himself to be a more competent negotiator than any of his Conservative predecessors simply by virtue of getting this deal with the EU over the line. Many Tories have said that if this deal was on the table when the Protocol was first being drafted, they would have jumped at it. If the DUP accept, if government in Stormont is restored, and NI is brought back into the fold of the UK, his gamble will have paid off, and he can bill himself as “the great negotiator” at the next election. If not, if the DUP have but the smallest gripe and refuse to re-enter power-sharing, Sunak’s gamble will have failed, and Brexit will still be seen as incomplete. I doubt that Brexit will ever be completed to the scale which we were promised by Johnson and Co. in 2016 (in fact I am sure it won’t), but if at least the Northern Ireland issue can at last be put to rest, we can begin to move past Brexit.
stay safe
/e