Yesterday, Russian private military company Wagner Group turned on the Russian Army, instigating a civil conflict within Russia. After months of threats and posturing in response to lacklustre support from the Army, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has ordered his mercenaries to turn back towards their homeland, sweeping into the city of Rostov-on-Don and occupying it. Rostov is the forward operating base for much of the Russian military activity in eastern Ukraine, and that Wagner was able to establish control of it without firing a shot bodes very ill for the Russians, and very well for the Ukrainians. 24 hours ago, Wagner troops looked likely to march on Moscow and Prigozhin’s rhetoric was more hostile towards Russian leadership than it ever had been, demanding that Russian military leaders Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov to come to Rostov, or else.
An armoured column of Prigozhin’s mercenaries was rolling north out of Rostov, shooting down at least seven Russian helicopters that opened fire upon them, killing all crew members. Indeed, once Wagner troops made speedy progress past Russian defences at Voronezh on their way to Moscow, it felt like history was about to unfold before our eyes once more.
Now, it appears as if the situation has reached its climax early, as Wagner troops have been ordered back to their barracks in Ukraine, and Prigozhin pacified. Russian media has reported that Wagner troops will be absorbed into the Russian Army proper and returned to Ukraine to continue the war. Prigozhin himself is bound for Belarus, seemingly (or, for the Kremlin, hopefully) indefinitely.
How the deal between Prigozhin and President Vladimir Putin was struck is, and I fear will remain, a mystery. Prigozhin has said that his troops have stood down “to avoid bloodshed”, but Prigozhin and his bloodthirsty troops have never been shy of that before.
One would suspect an organisation like Wagner, that has extorted, raped, and massacred its way across four continents, wouldn’t have scruples at the trifling proposition of killing Russian soldiers upon entering Moscow.
However, that is what has happened. Or at least, that’s what the official line out of Moscow is. Whether Prigozhin was bribed, blackmailed, or threatened into this course of action is unknown.
I am highly sceptical that he laid down his arms out of the goodness of his heart or his love of country; just a few hours ago he looked set to roll his troops up to the Kremlin and oust its occupants. For him to leave Russia for Belarus with his tail between his legs will have taken some serious leverage by Putin.
It is worth pointing out that neither man has mentioned the other by name in their addresses. Both are still respectful/fearful of one another, and know how damaging the effects would be on the overall war effort if they were both to start ripping chunks off each other.
Prigozhin still owes his success to Putin, and he isn’t stupid enough to take up arms against a man who has murdered political opponents for less; he is ‘Putin’s Chef’, after all. And Putin knows Wagner are his best asset in Ukraine, and to risk not only the destabilisation of his nation through a civil conflict, but a swift defeat in Ukraine all with one decision would be an uncharacteristically unwise decision.
Putin as made a very major miscalculation in giving Prigozhin and Wagner as much power as he did. Having a faceless, ruthless, and unaccountable fighting force capable of unspeakable atrocities and offensives on a massive scale has been a huge boon for an aggressor like Putin, and doubtless will continue to be when the war crimes tribunal comes around.
The cons still outweigh the pros however. The formerly faceless PMC Wagner gained a face after Putin allowed Prigozhin to launch tirades and insults against leaders of his military in videos posted to Telegram, especially Shoigu (Defence Minister) and Gerasimov (Chief of the General Staff), who he holds responsible for the deaths of many of his men. Putin subsequently gave Prigozhin no reprimand for these offences, offences any other Russian would be bundled into the back of a van for.
The emboldened Prigozhin posted audio recordings to Telegram before marching on Rostov in which he rages against the Kremlin’s cavalier attitude to the lives of his men and throws the basis of the war into question; a treasonous offence in Russia. However, the fact that all Russian military policies are not passed without Putin’s permission will not have been lost on Prigozhin, I expect. He knows where the true blame for the wanton slaughter of his mercenaries lies.
Wagner, despite being some of the most effective troops fighting for Russia, still wouldn’t have taken Moscow alone. They have no fighting planes or helicopters and rely on the Russian air force for air superiority. No such force would be able to take Moscow without pyrrhic casualties.
So, Prigozhin will now, ostensibly, live out the rest of his days in Belarus, in obscurity. How a man as proud as him was convinced to do this I’m sure I don’t know, but it was either a jaw-dropping amount of cash, or a threat so bone-chilling that it put even a callous warlord like Prigozhin into exile.
Plans to assimilate Wagner into the Russian Army are older than the deal struck last night; Prigozhin was informed that he had a deadline of July 1st to comply with the assimilation, a request that might have been the straw to break his back.
The frictions between Prigozhin and the Russian Army top brass were not lost on Putin. He knew Prigozhin wouldn’t play nice if taking orders from the likes of Gerasimov and Shoigu, and that they wouldn’t take kindly to a PMC boss scoring victories ahead of them.
Putin has played Wagner and the Army off each other since the beginning of this war, trying to limit their power to ensure neither could attempt to overthrow him. This approach has had the side effect of fomenting hatred between Prigozhin and Army leaders, hatred strong enough for Prigozhin to turn his troops back into Russia.
The Russian Army has been deliberately under-supplying Wagner forces in Ukraine to try and starve them out of any victories, and have failed to sufficiently protect Wagner’s flanks as it fights in Bakhmut. This had led to horrible casualties for Wagner in Bakhmut as the Ukrainians have sought to destroy as many Russian troops as possible ahead of their counter-offensive.
This is the first time in this war where we have seen real, obvious cracks in Putin’s façade of invulnerability. For one of his best commanders and closest confidants to so publicly turn against him and almost march troops into Moscow has shown the world, and more importantly, shown Russians how weak he really is.
Morale in Russian ranks was already unsustainably low in both the regular Army and within PMCs, but now that Wagner forces have rebelled against Putin, and apparently almost succeeded, what little fight is left in Russian troops will likely be knocked out. Those same mutinous mercs are now to be assimilated into the same ranks they just revolted against. I expect a harmonious relationship is not forthcoming.
Wagner troops that are to be absorbed into the Russian Army have expressed their disappointment and sense of abandonment at Prigozhin after his deal with Putin. These men had no say in this decision, and no say in what happens to their leader, the man who recruited many of them from Russian prisons personally.
The convicts fighting for Wagner at least had the motivation of freedom and clemency if they survive their tour, but regular Russian troops have no such incentive.
Russia’s over-reliance on PMCs like Wagner will catalyse its impending defeat in Ukraine. As we saw in Sudan with the RSF, attempting to assimilate rebellious paramilitary groups into a state army is likely to end in civil war.
Whilst Prigozhin’s revolt has weakened Putin more than any other single event of this war to date, Putin is still not insecure in his position. He is not the only one keeping him in power; he still has the backing of the Army, the oligarchs, the FSB, and the wheels of the Russian state. Until they decide the war is a lost cause and send Putin to retire at his country palace, he will stay in place.
That being said, this eventuality might be coming sooner than we thought. The holes in Putin’s chainmail grow larger with each setback, and Prigozhin has just ripped the biggest one. It won’t happen in the short term, but it will happen soon, I’d put money on it.
Putin does still have the backing of the Russian people; his poll numbers remain high (although Russian polls are about as trustworthy as Boris Johnson under oath) and his propaganda machine is still effective. However, Russia hasn’t been a democracy in a long time. The people didn’t have a say in Putin’s appointment, and they won’t have a say in his dismissal either.
The real winner in this situation is, of course, Ukraine. Videos of Ukrainian soldiers watching proceedings unfold on screens whilst eating popcorn are endemic on social media already. These tongue-in-cheek reactions have become emblematic of Ukraine’s response to this debacle; they will sit back, watch Putin, Prigozhin, and their armies rip themselves apart, and reap the benefits of their disunity on the battlefield.
Ukraine has succeeded in sapping Russian numbers during the battle for Bakhmut and the surrounding area, and Russia’s reserves are no longer extensive enough to withstand a sustained offensive.
Also, where Russian morale weakens, Ukrainian morale is strengthened. They are still outnumbered by Russia quite substantially, but they prove to be better than the Russians at most every opportunity. This episode will have emboldened the Ukrainians, with many analysts and bloggers already calling this the beginning of the end of the war.
Ukraine is currently not committing any large number of forces to any one area, only launching small probing attacks across Russia’s frontline, softening it up, feeling for any weak points they can exploit for a breakthrough.
Russian morale is so low that should a breakthrough come for Ukraine as a result of this offensive, Russian soldiers may not bother to fight back. A full rout would spell disaster for the Russian war effort, and it is by no means an outside chance anymore.
stay safe
/e