Covid-19 and Brexit
Prior to the outbreak of the SARS-CoV2 virus, Brexit was the most concerning issue in Europe. The economic and political fates of both the UK and the EU depends on the quality (or even existence) of the trade deal that will (or should) be brokered between them. Unfortunately, the continuing spread of Covid-19 has put a rather large spanner in the works for the UK and its government. Negotiating a deal as profound and detailed as this deal will need to be, in the timeframe Britain was originally given, was a monumental task in itself. Four years after the result of the referendum, and still with no completed trade deal announced by the UK government, the international community grows less and less confident that the UK will produce such a trade deal by December of 2020.
Boris’s False Hope
Boris Johnson, however, is characteristically optimistic that the UK will produce a working trade deal with the EU by the deadline at the end of this year, despite the attention of the government almost universally pivoting to focus on the containment of SARs-CoV2. Johnson’s pledges to the British people on Brexit do not seem to age well though; in 2019 he pledged emphatically that a withdrawal agreement would be completed by October 31st of that year, but the Benn Bill agreed upon by Parliament forced him to seek an extension. His most famous pledge that £350 million would be diverted from paying the EU to funding the NHS was found to be nothing but a blatant lie. His track record on issues such as these fill all except his most devoted supporters with a very reasonable doubt.
The Direct Impact of Covid-19
Covid-19 is harming the Brexit process more than diverting political attention from it, however. Two of the EU’s lead negotiators of the trade deal were infected with the virus, pausing the trade talks until their symptoms dissipated. Shortly after the two EU officials were infected, Johnson himself came down with the virus, and was placed in intensive care for a month. Both of these incidents further reduced the time the UK has to strike a deal with Brussels.
Longer Term
The great looming financial uncertainty that hangs over world economies during the time of this virus has added yet more doubt surrounding Britain’s economic welfare on the other side of Brexit. Economists predict that the UK economy will experience stagnation after the transition period has lapsed. This, combined with the devastating effect of Covid-19 on almost every economy around the world, gives a very grim forecast for Britain’s finances post-Brexit.
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