Trump’s Dire Prospects

At no stage in an election is any outcome certain. Polls are famously unreliable when the race between candidates is close, and scandals or newly discovered pieces of information may cause a favourite’s numbers to plummet overnight. The ongoing race between incumbent President Donald Trump and presidential hopeful and former Vice President Joe Biden is, as the time of this article’s publication, anything but close.

The Swing States

The main way of gauging a US election in the early stages is to look at how well the respective candidates are doing in key swing states, which are states that have historically not traditionally supported any one party, but swing between the two parties. Whomever wins the favour of these states, usually wins the election. Not only is Biden leading in all but one of the swing states (Trump leads by one percentage point in Ohio), but some states that were thought to be Republican safe havens are lending their support to Biden; Texas, a state that hasn’t voted Democrat since 1976, shows Biden ahead of Trump. Georgia, a deep south state and Republican stronghold, shows Biden and Trump drawing against each other. Trump’s main audience for his policies are white, working-class, and predominantly male. Recent polls show that group’s support for Trump slowly slipping into single digits. The 60+ age bracket has also long been a bastion of support for the Republicans, but Biden is also stealing numbers from Trump in that category as well.

What Does Trump Stand For?

Trump has not yet released any focused policy or manifesto pertaining to his second term, and his administration seems to be offering little indication of the direction they wish to take should they win this election. The only thing that Trump has offered the American people is four more years of himself as President, and for his key voter base, that is more than enough. Trump seems to have created, either deliberately or inadvertently, a personality cult around himself of his most die-hard supporters. These are people who would vote for Trump no matter what he says or does, ready to refute any claim about Trump’s ineffective leadership with the battle cry of “fake news”. In 2016, this group encompassed the majority of the Republican voter base; white, working-class, rural Americans. But as Biden eats away at the numbers, only the most radical are left supporting Trump, with the more moderate, even centre-right voters moving to support Biden.

The GOP Betrayal

Another trend that is heavily influencing the outcome of this election, is the feeling of betrayal among moderate Republicans. The Trump administration has shifted the focus of the Republican party over the last four years, and more radical right-wing agendas are taking prevalence within the party. Moderate Republicans feel that the focus of the party is now based around covering for the erratic and sometimes incomprehensible actions and words of their President, instead of core Republican beliefs such as a limited government, low taxes, and a free economy. Many Republicans who feel betrayed and outcast by their own party in this way see Biden as a way out. If Biden wins this election, their party will have time out of office to refocus, cleanse itself of Trumpian agendas, and rally around reasonable policy and sensible goals.

What About Biden?

Biden presents himself as a moderate, sensible, and non-threatening alternative to Trump, whose campaign has always been steeped in an element of risk-taking, with one of the mantras of his campaign being, “What have you got to lose?” In 2016, the notion of a Trump presidency was novel, and America was in a far more stable position than it is now, and so the risk of Trump being President seemed to be worth it for white, middle America. Now that the novelty of President Trump has worn off, and not only are racial tensions in the nation near breaking point, but thousands of Americans are dying daily from the Covid-19 pandemic that has been exacerbated by poor handling of the crisis by Trump and his administration. Biden, and his safe, moderate presentation, is attracting everyone on the left of the political spectrum, and eating away at the right wing as well. His grandfatherly demeanour is reminiscent of President Reagan, and in much the same way as Reagan drew a great deal of support from Democrats in 1980, Biden is drawing support from the left of the Republican party. While it would be unwise to make predictions of the election’s outcome at this early stage, unless Trump pulls a miracle out of the pitiful state the US finds itself in after four years of his presidency, his fate is sealed.

Stay safe, stay political.

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Copyright (c) 2020 Shadi Ghanim