Is Joe Biden on the path to victory?

The United States of America is in the throes of it’s most consequential election in recent memory. This election has heralded a historically high voter turnout; roughly 161 million Americans have passed their vote. Two-thirds of the total turnout of the 2016 Presidential election (around 100 million people) had already voted by mail before November 3rd. It is clear that the American people are very motivated to enact change in their country, but with the approval gap between the candidates a lot smaller that what was polled, it seems that political division is still rife. Whoever the next president is, his most pressing task will be to protect the American people from the SARS-CoV2 pandemic. Concurrently, however, the task of healing the wounds of the last four years, and ridding the nation of the blight of systemic racism should still be near the top of his to-do list. It is predictable that none of these things will be anywhere near the top of Trump’s list, who still holds a fighting chance of victory yet.

How are the votes falling?

As of the writing of this post, Joe Biden holds 253 electoral college votes, with Donald Trump on 214. Six states are still to project for either candidate; they are Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

Alaska

Alaska is usually a safe Republican state, and the way the votes have been counted in the past couple of days indicates that it will stay red in 2020, which would bring Trump’s count to 217.

Arizona

Arizona has been called for Biden by a few different networks, but the votes there are still being counted and it is still too close to call for either candidate yet. However, Biden has been leading in Arizona since the count started, and while Trump may have closed the gap slightly as votes continue to be counted, it seems likely that Arizona will be called for Biden. Arizona would give Biden 11 EC votes to add to his total, taking him to 264.

Georgia

Georgia had been showing a solid Trump lead until a few hours ago, where a large quantity of mail-in ballots from the large urban areas of Atlanta and Savannah were counted, which gave Biden around a 1,000 vote lead. If this lead holds, Georgia would give Biden a total of 269 electoral college votes, just one vote away from victory. If Georgia goes to Biden, the President cannot win, only draw or lose.

Nevada

Nevada is a reliable Democrat state, and Biden has been on track to take it since the votes were first cast. His lead has faltered recently, emboldening the Trump campaign to file lawsuits against the counting of new mail-in ballots in Nevada, but Biden still leads, and the trends show he is likely to win the state. Nevada would take Biden to 259 votes.

North Carolina

North Carolina has historically been a swing state in US elections, and before the election Biden was polling ahead of Trump in that state. However, the first round of votes counted put Trump ahead by a somewhat comfortable margin, and that gap has failed to close. Trump is on track to win North Carolina, which would take his EC vote total to 229.

Pennsylvania

Arguably the most important state in this election has turned out to be Pennsylvania. Trump and Biden had both campaigned aggressively in the state, as its large prize of 20 EC votes was up for grabs by both candidates. Biden was born in Scranton, PA, which would seem to give him an edge on the surface, but the state voted for Trump in 2016, and the polls gave Trump a fighting chance to keep the state. Biden can win without Pennsylvania; if he secures any other two states that have yet to be called he would have enough votes to claim victory. Trump cannot win without Pennsylvania. Even if he won every other state that is yet to forecast a victor, he will not have enough electoral college votes to remain president if Biden claims Pennsylvania. Trump has maintained a lead in the state for the past two days, but the last votes to be counted were mail-in ballots (which have favoured Biden considerably since the count started) from the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas, both heavily Democrat cities. Within the last few minutes, these mail-in ballots have given Biden a 0.1% lead in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania would take Biden to 273 EC votes, 3 votes over the 270 mark.

How will it break down?

The Biden camp is predictably confident of victory, with presidential transition pages already written to be posted on the Biden campaign official website. At this late stage in the counting procedure, victory (in the traditional sense) for Biden is almost certain. Trump must either maintain control of North Carolina, pull ahead in Georgia again, or wrestle either Arizona or Nevada from the Democrats. None of these will count for anything if Trump doesn’t retake Pennsylvania. If Pennsylvania is called for Biden, Trump will have lost the election. If this were a normal election, one would think a concession speech would not be far off, but Trump works differently to other Presidents. He has already falsely called the election for himself, as votes are still being counted, and has filed lawsuits in Michigan, Wisconsin (both of which have already been called for Biden), Pennsylvania and Nevada to contest the counting of mail-in ballots. He has said time and again throughout his four years in high elected office, that the only reason he will accept the outcome of an election is if the result favours him, no matter the validity of his claims of fraud.

The Trump lawsuits filed in desparation

The lawsuits filed by Trump have no basis, and I would be surprised if the decisions passed District Courts, let alone Trump’s ambition of taking the matter to the Supreme Court. If the election is won by Biden, Trump will not leave the White House willingly, it just isn’t in his character. Never before in American history has the loser of a presidential election not conceded to the victor, and as such, the US is currently headed for uncharted political water. I cannot predict what will happen in the next few days if Trump loses his lawsuits. If he wins them all and stays in office, the nation will surely erupt into never-ending protest and civil unrest, deepening the wounds of political and racial division in the already polarised nation. That is the one and only plan for Trump; I doubt he has even considered what he will do if he loses. The idea will have surely crossed his mind when Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania. It’s obvious that Trump is going on the defensive in light of Biden’s lengthening lead; Trump has tweeted twelve times in the past twenty-four hours, and of those tweets, six were removed by Twitter for spreading misinformation about the election. He claims that Pennsylvania and Michigan are the most democratically corrupt states in the union, and as such cannot be trusted to count ballots, despite no evidence to prove him right. One can only imagine; what does the future hold for Donald Trump should he lose this election?

stay safe

/e