In the aftermath of the vote of confidence conducted yesterday by Tory MPs, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s position looks as precarious as it ever has. He, and his troupe of loyal followers, are claiming this was a major victory for the PM, having secured the vote with 211 for, and 148 against, winning with 59% of the vote.
The PM’s analysis of the vote is not unwarranted; he won, and does not now have to worry about another one for a long time, as the 1922 Committee states that once a no confidence vote is triggered, the leader cannot be challenged again for 12 months afterwards.
However, Johnson’s jubilation is somewhat tone-deaf. According to historical precedent, Tory PMs generally do not fare well after winning a vote of confidence; Margaret Thatcher won her vote by only a slightly slimmer margin than Johnson, 57%, and resigned only days later. John Major won his vote of confidence by a far better margin of 66%, and did not resign as a result. He made it to the 1997 General Election however, when the Tories were soundly defeated by Tony Blair’s New Labour by a landslide. Theresa May also won her vote of confidence by 63%, a larger margin than Johnson, and resigned shortly thereafter, egged on by hard-line Tories now loyal to Johnson, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg.
The odds are not in Johnson’s favour following this result. Every Conservative PM in recent memory has either resigned their office or lost elections following votes of confidence, and the way that Johnson and the Tories are polling right now, their chances of winning any elections are very slim indeed.
Needless to say, pollsters and commentators are predicting decisive results against the Conservatives in the two upcoming by-elections in Tiverton and Honiton, and Wakefield, forecasting victories for the Liberal Democrats and Labour, respectively.
On top of these, Johnson also has the Parliamentary Privilege Committee investigation into his alleged misleading of the House, which is expected by nearly all commentators and most politicians to find him guilty. If he is found guilty, it is expected he will have to resign, but I doubt he will.
Johnson will follow in John Major’s footsteps after this vote; limp on towards the general election in 2024, his reputation in tatters, his majority severely diminished, and with the majority of the public hating his guts. His one and only concern is maintaining the title of Prime Minister, and he will do so by any means necessary until 2024.
That is, if he survives the two years between now and then, and all the tribulations those years will bring. We still have the by-elections and committee investigations to conclude, all of which are expected to deal still more damage to Johnson’s political ambitions.
No matter how many times this happens, no matter how many committees or civil servants or police departments find him guilty of wrongdoing, he is physically and mentally incapable of genuine humility, and as such is incapable of resigning.
As one political commentator put it after the vote yesterday; “The only way Boris Johnson will leave Downing Street is in handcuffs, or dragged kicking and screaming.” It is a sight that I, for one, am very much looking forwards to seeing.
stay safe
/e
