After a full day of voting and a full night of counting, the results of the 2023 Local Elections are in. 230 councils went to the polls on Thursday in all of the regions of England, with over 8,000 seats up for grabs.
The Conservative party has been trailing in the national polls by double digits for months now, so the results of the election didn’t surprise anyone. It was a nightmare for the Conservatives, who lost more than 1,000 seats across the country, losing control of some 48 councils.
Senior Tories knew May 4th would be disastrous, but did their best at damage limitation nonetheless. Rishi Sunak said before Brits went to the polls that the Tories would lose 1,000 seats, expecting his party to do marginally better so he could claim victory.
However, Sunak’s prediction turned put to be remarkably prescient, and no victory of the sort has been claimed by any Tory, except the especially deluded like Chairman Greg Hands, who sees the results as positive for the Conservatives, despite only gaining control of 2 councils next to Labour’s 22.
Hands and a number of other government loyalists have citied their winning of a few seats in marginal districts like Sandwell, Bassetlaw, and Peterborough, and the better-than-average response Rishi Sunak receives on the doorstep as signs of a coming Conservative general election victory.
They say that this is not an overall victory for Labour, as their results are good, but not the type they need to see to expect a 1997-esque landslide general election victory. They say that Keir Starmer is not as popular as he needs to be to secure a majority. This is despite the fact that recent polling pitting Sunak against Starmer for best PM puts Starmer consistently ahead, and that safe Tory councils in Kent, and Berkshire were lost to other parties.
There is a nugget of truth in what these Tories are peddling. Whilst these results are certainly a very good outcome for Labour and shouldn’t be understated in that regard, it is not the type of victory one can rest on their laurels afterwards. There is still a lot of work to be done and a lot of clarity that needs to be offered if Labour are to secure an overall majority in 2024.
The real winners of these election were the Liberal Democrats. Whilst recent Westminster shenanigans have been helpful to Labour in the Red Wall, they have been a godsend for the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. They won 12 councils, half of them from the Tories, and saw no significant loss of vote share in the councils they held.
Whilst local elections are never a reliable portent to gauge results nationally, they do always give a good idea of the public mood. That mood was never in any doubt; after 13 years of no real growth, crumbling public services, and a litany of corruption, sleaze, and scandal, people want a change. Doesn’t take a genius to work that out. A betting man would put his money on Labour for the next GE.
But as has been Labour’s mantra since 2019, complacency is the enemy. This result does not indicate an overall majority in a GE, let alone a landslide. This is the reason Keir Starmer will not rule out a Lib-Lab coalition in his interviews. The public still do not fully trust him, and Labour’s position on most major policy areas still lacks detail and clarity. The upcoming Labour manifesto will hopefully rectify some of these issues, but even then, the struggle uphill will continue.
The only complacent ones after these results are those who can least afford it. Tory government appointees and loyalists give the impression that their victory in 2024 is assured, and that there is no real threat posed by any opposition parties. That kind of rhetoric is not what enthuses voters into action. People want to feel like they make a difference when they vote. Complacency of this manner keeps voters at home, which is precisely why they lost so badly this week.
If they want to see a victory in 2024, their entire attitude at both local and national level needs serious change. People are not enthusiastic about voting Tory like they are voting Labour or Lib Dem or Green or Independent. Traditional Conservative voters, if they aren’t voting Labour in the North or Lib Dem in the South, didn’t bother coming out to vote in these elections because they believed the government line that the Tories are doing fine, no real threat to them nationally, they’re delivering on “the people’s priorities”.
People want to see real change; they don’t care about small boats, or culture wars. They care about their standard of living, the quality and efficiency of their hospitals and emergency services, the prices in the supermarket coming down to something reasonable, their government doing something, anything, about the looming climate catastrophe, and encouraging others to do the same. They haven’t got that after 13 years of Tories, no matter how much they “get on with the job.” The job is clearly not one they can complete, so why don’t they just get out of the way?
stay safe
/e