A private jet owned by the Russian PMC Wagner Group crashed in Tver Oblast, Russia on Wednesday, exactly 2 months after the group staged an unsuccessful rebellion against the Russian government. The plane was flying from Moscow to St Petersburg, crashing roughly halfway between the two cities.
All 7 passengers and 3 crew members died in the crash, including members of Wagner’s high-ranking leadership. Among the dead are Dmitry Utkin, Wagner’s co-founder and military commander (a prolific neo-Nazi, whose callsign in the GRU was “Wagner”, after the Nazi’s appropriation of the German composer), Valery Chekalov, Wagner’s head of logistics and security, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s owner and public face.
The Russian government have, of course, denied any involvement, with the Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov calling allegations to the contrary “an absolute lie.” We can therefore assume that this was a political assassination ordered by Putin as revenge for the Wagner rebellion.
Even without this confirmation of the Kremlin’s involvement by Peskov (whatever Peskov says, the opposite is invariably true), who else would be to blame? The plane did not crash by accident; it was reportedly in good condition and had not experienced maintenance issues prior to the crash, and witnesses report hearing two loud explosions before the plane fell flaming from the sky.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is on record as saying the one thing he cannot forgive is disloyalty, and he was the first to call the Wagner rebellion an act of betrayal. Even his remarks after Prigozhin’s death couldn’t be more transparent; he said Prigozhin had “made some serious mistakes in life.” Such a statement wouldn’t be out of place in a mobster’s eulogy.
The most likely cause of the crash was an explosion caused by a device that was smuggled onto the plane. The device may have been given to the flight attendant to carry on board, but the presence of Prigozhin’s security detail (who also died in the crash) make this unlikely as checks would have been carried out before take-off.
The device was likely hidden in the plane’s fuselage before take-off, either timed to explode mid-air or remotely detonated. Others, including Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels, claimed the plane had been shot down by the Russian military, but the US Department of Defence has refuted this claim based on the available evidence.
The remains of all 10 passengers were found in the wreckage, charred and maimed beyond recognition. Subsequent DNA tests confirmed their identities, and Prigozhin’s phone was allegedly found at the crash site as well.
An “investigation” into the crash was undertaken by the Russian Emergency Control Ministry, but any conclusion drawn by them wouldn’t be worth the paper its written on. Indeed, the Brazilian aviation accident investigation unit (the aircraft was of Brazilian origin) offered to assist in the investigation, but this was refused.
After the death of 3 of its most senior commanders, the future of Wagner is unclear. Wagner no longer has a presence in Ukraine, as Prigozhin had announced after his failed rebellion that his forces would be leaving the frontlines there.
Wagner still maintains a significant presence in Africa, with its leader of African Operations Konstantin Pikalov not present on the flight and supposedly still commanding Wagner elements in Africa. After the recent coups in the Sahel and the ousting of French and NATO forces from Mali, Burkina Faso, and most recently Niger, Wagner looks set to replace the West and the security guarantor for the region.
If the Russian government continues its funding of Wagner, there’s no reason to believe they will cease their operations. They have proven to be of great use to Russia in projecting its hard power abroad, a tool that Putin would be unwise to rid himself of.
The elimination of Prigozhin and Utkin will have also eliminated any threat posed by Wagner to the Russian government. However, Wagner are a ruthless and brutal force, and have all too publicly displayed their willingness to betray their benefactor. Whether others inside Wagner will hold a grudge over these assassinations remains to be seen.
As shocking as these assassinations are, they were far from unpredictable. Russia, and the USSR before it, has a long and rich history of political assassinations; the tradition is almost synonymous with Russian politics at this point.
The reaction in Russia reflected this fact, with many Russians surprised it took Putin this long to get around to killing Prigozhin. High profile Russian businesspeople, journalists, political opponents, military commanders, government officials, anyone Putin deems to pose the slightest threat to his personal power and security, have died by the dozen since Putin took power. I am not sure what the international average is, but the proportion of people who die by falling out of windows in Russia is surely well above it.
Others have “fallen ill”, been found dead with no explanation in offices or homes, drowned whist swimming, or committed suicide with no prior mental health difficulties. The normalisation of these disgusting crimes is testament to how rotten to its core Russia has become. Justice in a lie in Russia. No one is safe in that nation, no one who wishes to speak their mind and live freely, as we do in the west. That Putin accuses the west of moral bankruptcy, of all the evil he engages in as second nature, is hypocrisy of unspeakable disgracefulness.
Prigozhin’s plane crash was only permitted a 30-second report on Russia’s flagship “news” broadcast, citing “violations of flight safety” as the cause of the crash.
Invariably, Russian infighting serves to benefit the west and Ukraine; Wagner was by far the most effective force in prosecuting Russia’s war, and these deaths, particularly that of Utkin, will be welcome news to Ukrainian forces. The little erection Putin gets whenever he kills an opponent or critic is not worth the lives of hundreds of Russian soldiers in any reasonable mind, but Putin is not a reasonable man. If anyone needs to fall out of a window, or drown in their swimming pool, its him.
stay safe
/e