There is death and destruction once again in Israel-Palestine this week, in the largest loss of life the region has endured in decades. Over 2,000 people are dead already, with the toll rising every minute.
In a wide-ranging and coordinated attack starting on 7 October, more than 3,000 rockets were launched by Hamas, a terrorist organisation and the governing body in Gaza, into Israel. Armed Islamist militants in the Gaza Strip broke through border fences into Israel, made their way into nearby towns, and started killing indiscriminately. Over 1,200 Israelis have died so far. 260 unarmed civilians were massacred at a music festival near Re’im. Hundreds of hostages, including women, children, and the elderly, have been taken back to Gaza by Hamas.
Israel has formally declared war on Hamas following this attack and has begun its retaliation, already killing around 900 people in Gaza with airstrikes. The Israeli blockade of Gaza, ongoing since 2006 when Hamas took power, has been intensified, as Israel declares a “complete siege” of the 25 mile-long strip, cutting off electricity, fuel, water, and food. All 4 of the border crossings into Israel have been shut.
80% of all people in Gaza already rely on humanitarian aid to survive, and this war could take years. Gaza cannot survive that long, but that appears to be Israel’s aim. The rhetoric coming from the Israeli government couldn’t be clearer; they mean to destroy Hamas, by any means necessary.
Israel has not endured civilian loss of life on this scale before. This is the deadliest terrorist attack since 9/11, the second deadliest in history, and the worst Israel has ever had. It will be remembered in Israel, and around the world, for years to come with heartbreak and grief. Hamas’s actions are unjustifiable and inhuman, and it deserves to be dismantled for its atrocities. Grandmothers beheaded in their gardens, children and babies murdered in their hundreds, rape on a massive scale, hostages taken back to Gaza as human shields or worse. But I fear Israel will use it to justify killing just as many Palestinian innocents in Gaza, under the guise of a war against Hamas.
Entire neighbourhoods in Gaza City have been flattened by Israeli airstrikes in the past few hours, homes, schools, hospitals, mosques, reduced to rubble. Children dead and maimed, families irreversibly broken. Civilians in Rimal were sent notice by Israeli forces 5 minutes before their neighbourhood was demolished, told to go to Khan Younis further south. The IDF struck Khan Younis as well, and people there fled to the Rafah border crossing, trying to get into Egypt. There too, they were hit by missiles, shutting the last border crossing in Gaza.
The IDF says it only targets Hamas and terrorist infrastructure, but Gaza, being one of the most densely populated regions in the world, is impossible to strike with explosives and not kill civilians. That is why Hamas is so desperate to keep control of it, because they can launch rockets and cower behind innocents to wage their pointless war. When the IDF strikes, the civilian deaths are used as justification for their war’s continuance, for the endless cycle of death and heartbreak to go on and on until one side breaks. Israel will not break first, not under Hamas alone, and it does seem to be Hamas alone. At least for now.
Between the IDF and Hamas, there are 2,000,000 Palestinians in Gaza, 900 of which have already been killed by the airstrikes. Israeli tactics have become more brutal recently, especially since President Netanyahu aligned himself with a gaggle of far-right, ultra-Zionist parties to form a majority after the last election. The caustic rhetoric used by governing members of these parties is reflected in some Israeli’s reaction to Hamas’s attack, with some calling for Gaza to be “wiped off the face of the earth.”
The IDF have given us no reason to believe this is not their intention. The airstrike campaign is just one prong to their trident, the second being their blockade, the third, their land invasion. 300,000 reservists have been called up and are massing near the border. It hasn’t happened as I write this article, but it will happen, it will kill thousands more on both sides, and it will succeed. But afterwards, what then? Does Israel cede control of Gaza to Fatah, the ruling party of the West Bank? Or keep it for itself and return the region to occupation? Perhaps even further settlement?
Israel has occupied Gaza before, and has not expressed any interest in doing so again. Managing 2,000,000 citizens is hard enough, but when all of them hate you and a few of them are trying to kill you it becomes impossible. However, Israel wants revenge for Hamas’s attack, and send a clear message that they will never let this happen again. I do not expect Netanyahu and his government to give Gaza up after they seize it. Israeli military leaders have already told every civilian in Gaza City to leave their homes, but they have nowhere to go. All the crossings are closed. They have 2,000,000 civilians trapped within a tiny piece of land, with no protection. These are military tactics used against a civilian population.
Hamas’s attack on Israel is devastating to Israel for another, less obvious reason; Israel has one of the best and most advanced militaries and intelligence services in the world, but they failed both to foresee and prevent this attack. Israeli intelligence are reported to have detected massive activity on networks used by Gazan militants, but their reports were not acted upon by the Israeli military. Was this out of negligence, or complacency? An Israeli military adviser said in an interview 6 days before the attack that Hamas was restrained, and “understands the implications of further defiance”.
Hamas used drones to target the automated systems and machine guns on the border fence, disabling it so that it could be mown down with bulldozers. Israeli commanders along the border were all stationed in one base, which was quickly overrun when the attack began. The IDF will be scorned by this attack as well as enraged by it, and its response will likely be disproportionate enough to send shockwaves throughout the region.
Conflicts in Israel have a habit of spilling out onto its neighbours, and Hezbollah in Lebanon to the north have already fired a few mortars into northern Israel in solidarity with Hamas. Hezbollah has stated it will not attack Israel unless Israel attacks Lebanon first, but a ground invasion of Gaza may be enough to push Hezbollah to further violence. Hezbollah, like Hamas, is backed by Iran. Although there is no evidence to suggest Iran was involved in Hamas’s attack, the government in Tehran will not be saddened by the news.
Another possibility resulting from a ground invasion of Gaza is a renewal of the migrant crisis in the Mediterranean. Refugees from Gaza will flood into North Africa, some of whom will make it across the sea into Europe, potentially sparking another wave of immigration-fuelled right-wing populism in the west.
Israel’s reputation with its Muslim neighbours is sure to suffer damage commensurate to the scale of its retaliation. It was making real progress at normalising relations with nations traditionally counted as foes, including Saudi Arabia. The region as a whole was cooling, but all that progress is now at serious risk.
Perhaps one of the greatest tragedies of this week has been to the peace process between Israel and Palestine and the progress towards the two-state solution. Hamas have irreconcilably reversed decades of progress with this attack, but it was the policies, actions, and inactions of the incumbent far-right Israeli government that pushed them to it. Again, there is no justification for Hamas’s attack, not even the ignorant and near-sighted settler ideology of thugs like Itamar Ben-Gvir, but no one can deny that it is contributory to Hamas’s motives. Perhaps if Israel had stuck to international law and dismantled the settlements in the West Bank, Hamas may not have been as enthused to carry out this attack.
The debate around Israel-Palestine was already the most controversial topic of modern politics, but now it will reach a new level. When people pick sides in this debate, they seem to forget about the suffering of the other side completely. Anyone who speaks out for Israel is accused of supporting apartheid and oppression. Anyone who speaks out for Palestine is accused of antisemitism and of sympathising with terrorists. There is no middle ground for the majority.
If peace is to be achieved, which after this week will not be for decades to come, it must be done by understanding both sides completely. I’m not saying I do, far from it, but I am making an effort to take in both arguments and understand both histories, something too little of us do when considering this debate. Israel has lost thousands of civilians. Palestine will lose thousands of civilians. Neither tragedy is superior, and neither can be a justification for more death.
For now, the west has leapt to Israel’s defence. The US has sent a carrier fleet closer to Israel in a show of support, and all NATO members have expressed their belief in Israel’s right to defend itself. The Muslim world has expressed support for the people of Palestine and called on Israel to cease the violence. It all seems sickeningly familiar. Our only hope is that the scale of this most recent violence will be enough to spark a strong enough will to negotiate a compromise reasonable enough to achieve a lasting peace. Doing my best to sound optimistic, but its getting so difficult now.
stay safe
/e