Happy New Year!
2024 is shaping up to be a doozie. It will be a year of elections, with 50 countries going to the polls to select new leaders and representatives, more than 2 billion people; the most democratic activity ever in a single year. A year of continuing war, with high-profile conflicts ongoing in every corner of the globe. A year of radical choices, and not just for electorates, but for governments, elected and unelected.
The world seems to reach an ever more precarious cliff edge with each passing year. Authoritarianism is back on the rise for the first time since the Cold War, the world having lost more democracies in 2023 than in years preceding. The climate crisis remains existentially worrying, and whilst people like to say that progress is being made, everyone who isn’t either stupid or on the take agree that it is no where near enough. Attention is drawn towards the most interesting or controversial happenings in the world, whilst not enough light is being shed on conflicts or disasters equally as tragic in humanitarian terms.
The fragility of our position is only made more unnerving when one considers the potential outcomes of this years elections. Steady pairs of hands are needed across the board. Quiet reformers and boring technocrats, not boastful campaigners with their snake oil-esque political quick fixes. I think most of you, if you’re familiar with my political grievances, know who I’m talking about here. Of all the elections happening in 2024, there is one that stands out the most with its potential for sheer unadulterated chaos on the world stage and in its home nation. I speak of course, about the US.
I’ll be the first to admit that I do not like Joe Biden’s chances this year. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a decent President, and has enacted some real positive reforms during his first term, the Inflation Reduction Act springing foremostly to mind. He’s a career politician, having sat on Capitol Hill in one capacity or another since he was in his 30s. He’s a dedicated, true blue old school Democrat, and were he a younger man, I’d be behind him all the way. Were he a younger man, I’d be saying he is the right man for the moment.
But he isn’t. He is well and truly past his prime. It’s the main talking point when discussing Biden’s flaws, and for good reason. Biden is 81 years old, and signs of deterioration are certainly starting to show. Despite my view that he is past his prime, he is still able to execute the duties of his office. For now at least. Who can say how rapidly his health and mental faculties will decline during the 4 years of his second term. However, there is no other Democrat in the US other than Biden who seems up to the task. No one else enjoys a high enough profile, high enough public approval, or even the willingness to take on the monumentally difficult and depressing experience that is running for President of the United States. Especially again the most likely Republican nominee.
Whatever my opinions of Biden, I would take him at 100 years old over Trump in his prime. Biden is an above-average President, far from the best the US has had, but he isn’t evil. It isn’t a word I use lightly, but we are dealing with a man who would tear down the foundational institutions of the country that gave him and his family all the success they have enjoyed, the beacon of democracy and liberal values in the world, for…for what? His own gratification? Triggering the libs? Certainly not for the good of the American people, that’s for sure.
I could go on, but I’m aware I’m wasting too many keystrokes on moaning about Trump, something that has been done far more efficiently and much more eloquently by others more qualified than me. All that remains to be said is that at a time of such global insecurity as this, a second Trump term would be utterly disastrous. US support for Ukraine would cease altogether, and would contribute to unchecked aggression from Putin’s Russia against an American and western ally. His election would likely also embolden Xi Jinping in to finally “unite” Taiwan with the Chinese mainland, likely through aggressive means. The war in Gaza is unlikely to end before the US votes, and God only knows what Trump’s response to that situation would be. The calamitous and seemingly arbitrary chaos of Trump’s foreign policy would foment an untold further number of crises whenever Trump’s mood changes. The US election will be by far the most consequential this year, but I plan to speak at greater length about it in an upcoming post.
The largest election however, is taking place in India, where 900 million registered voters will go to the polls. India has been enjoying a special place on the world stage in recent years, and now is one of the major players on the global stage. The west sees India as the democratic counterbalance to China in Asia, so closer ties with India are coveted by western nations as they seek to distance themselves from China. Its economy continues to boom, seemingly exponentially, and whilst its government maintains ties with both sides of the global debate, the growth can continue unhindered. What is more concerning about India’s long-term prospects is its gradual decline into the murky depths of right-wing nationalism and sectarian populism under its current, and most likely future Prime Minister.
Narendra Modi has overseen a period of prosperity and security in India, but he is widely recognised as a Hindu Nationalist. With much of his policy ringing out with anti-Islamic dogwhistles, concerns are being raised about the liberty of the Muslim community in India. Modi has been galvanising support among conservative Hindu voters, those keen to maintain India’s “traditional roots”, a notion which flies in the face of India’s republican tradition of secularism. This Islamophobia is only growing more widespread as the government appears less sympathetic to the plights of Muslims within India. The construction of a huge Hindu temple, built on the site of the Babri Mosque, one of the most significant mosques in India before it was torn down by a Hindu Nationalist mob in the 1990s, is nearing completion, part-funded by donations from the Modi Government.
Modi’s only opposition, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), a political alliance of all 27 opposition parties in the Indian congress, has experienced lukewarm polling and is not expected to gain victory against Modi. The continuation of Hindu Nationalism and erosion of India’s founding principles will likely continue after this year’s election, as will the rapid societal change brought about by the booming economy. Wealth inequality is startlingly vast in India, and that gap is also likely to keep widening. With its population now exceeding China’s, and even speculation that Modi is seeking to switch the country’s name to Bharat, India’s trajectory of change is likely to have a lasting impact on the world in the coming years.
The EU also goes to the polls in June this year to elect the European Parliament, the first European Parliament elections after Brexit. Europe finds itself in the midst of another migrant crisis, with thousands continuing to cross into EU borders each day. Much as it was in the early 2010s with the last migrant crisis, European politics finds itself at a crossroads. Last time, the surging immigration statistics fuelled a spike in right-wing populist governments in Europe as client papers and misleading campaigns galvanised ugly xenophobic sympathies. One of the most infamous outcomes of this period was Brexit, a saga which Brussels would be loathe to repeat with another member state.
EU elections are not very popular affairs, with the last one in 2019 being the first to scrape above 50%. As such, it is usually a chance for smaller parties, including those on the political extremes, to do better than they usually would, exemplified when the UK returned a UKIP-majority delegation in 2014. The far-right have been enjoying success within some major EU players, including France, Germany, Italy, and Hungary. Some European nations have been considering migration schemes similar to the UK’s ill-conceived Rwanda plan, but even if the far-right gains a majority foothold in Brussels, desperate migrants fleeing across the Mediterranean will not be deterred. These EU elections will likely determine the tone of European nations’ individual migration policies, as well as the EU itself.
Among the more significant of 2024’s elections will be Taiwan, happening a little later this month on 13 January. The incumbent President, Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party, has completed her final term in office and cannot stand for re-election. Tsai’s Vice President, Lai Ching-te, will be standing as the continuation candidate, the likely favourite, and also widely seen as the most anti-China ticket on the ballot.
The People’s Republic always looms large over Taiwanese politics, and this election will be no different. The CCP’s dislike of Tsai and the DPP has carried over, with the government on the mainland urging islanders not to vote for Lai. Taiwan doesn’t have a rich history of heeding Beijing’s warnings, and I still expect Lai to win, but sadly, I fear the election in Taiwan will actually end up mattering less for cross-strait relations than the election across the Pacific a few months down the line.
Of course, the United Kingdom is also due to elect a new Parliament this year, in what is widely expected to be one of the more heated and consequential elections of the modern British era. I will go into far greater detail about the matter in subsequent posts, of which you can expect a few both before and after the election.
The timing of the thing will be key. I initially had thought Sunak may call it in Spring, perhaps April or May, giving Jeremy Hunt time to cut everyone’s taxes in the Spring Budget and purchase some political capital for the Tories. Now, with the polls widening further despite the Government’s desperate efforts, it looks likely that they’ll stretch it out for as long as they can, as Sunak has vaguely referenced it will happen “in the second half of the year”.
In my opinion, a general election should have been called in Summer 2022, after Boris Johnson resigned in dishonour. The Conservatives should have had the moral fibre to know when the game was up, but they still haven’t got the message. It’s my hope they’ll call it soon, late August or early September, the sooner the better, but I doubt it. It’ll happen in November, as likely as not. The economy is still on the ropes, and no sensible tax cuts can be given in the March budget. Sunak and Hunt are waiting for their luck to turn, praying to the Gods of the international headwinds for a more favourable 2024/25 to cut taxes in the next Autumn Statement. If they wait as long as they are constitutionally able, January 2025, it would show the utmost cowardice, and you’ll know that every chance they had to improve their chances was missed.
This year will likely be seen by future generations as a turning point in the 21st century. So much is to be decided on, there is so much potential to unleash, but also so much that could go wrong. The wars still ongoing this year will have profound and lasting consequences felt for generations, not least the situation in the Middle East. A source of war and political controversy for most of the post-Cold War period, ripples from the Israel-Gaza war have created waves in every corner of the region. The Houthis restricting access to the Red Sea, Iranian proxy militias in Iraq and Syria provoking American troops; the fuse certainly looks lit, but whether it will be stamped out before reaching the keg will almost entirely depend on how swiftly Israel can withdraw from Gaza.
Away from the Middle East, conflict it still claiming lives all over the world. The rebellion against military rule in Myanmar is seeing greater success, with armed ethnic militias pushing the Burmese Army back on almost all fronts, despite disunity and differing goals between the rebels, leaving Myanmar’s future after the military’s potential defeat uncertain. Sudan is still split in two between the RSF and the army, its neighbours in the Sahel still reeling from successive coups overthrowing established governments and throwing western forces from the region, leaving the door open for Russia and its proxies.
Russia herself still grinds on with Putin’s pointless and destructive war against Ukraine, or as Putin sees it, against the US, EU, UK, NATO, and the entire west. The fighting has degraded to a bloody stalemate, Ukraine’s much anticipated offensive last year having amounted to very little. Western support still middling at best, and Ukraine’s needs are not being met by its benefactors. If Joe Biden doesn’t stay in the White House this year, Ukraine’s chances may be spent.
Russia also goes to the polls in 2024 to “elect” their President. Despite either killing or imprisoning most of his political rivals, Putin still holds elections to maintain his sham of legitimacy on the world stage, of which he has become a pariah. I wonder if he will try to at least make his landslide look convincing, but I expect his ego will prevail once again. I predict a 85% victory for the sick little plastic man.
And rumbling away beneath all of this uncertainty and despair, a challenge even more serious than disunity, dictators, and war; the attritional destruction of our natural environments. Climate change, despite being the greatest crisis humanity has ever faced, whose effects are already being felt and suffered on every continent on the planet, doesn’t feel any higher up the agenda now as it did a few years ago. Most all governments have some form of policy or department dedicated to the issue, but are all in agreement that no where near enough is being done.
Humanity’s attention bandwidth is very limited, so whilst the aforementioned elections and wars are ongoing, the eyes of the world will remain mostly away from the climate crisis. Not only that, 2024 will also see a rise in anti-environmentalist sentiment as the effects radical green policies begin to affect people’s lives. Despite most people agreeing radical action is needed, none want that action to touch them. Whether it’s wind turbines all over the countryside or penalties for polluting cars in urban areas, if a green policy becomes a detriment, populists will attempt to seize the narrative by focussing on the individuals involved, not the wider issue of the impending catastrophe.
This way of thinking will present a turning point for humanity. Solving the climate crisis and saving the world was never going to be easy, and not everyone is going to come away better off. Jobs will be lost, economies may shrink, entire industries could emerge overnight and others disappear. But it needs to happen. We’ve left it too late for an easy way out now. We, collectively, will be presented with a choice to address the challenges that lie ahead; the rights of the one, or the wellbeing of the many. It will be an impossible choice, one that we should not rightly have to make, but if the wrong path is chosen, we might not be walking it for long.
stay safe
/e