It’s on. It’s finally on. After however many years that we’ve all been screaming for one, it has finally, mercifully, come at last. Rishi Sunak, on a torrential May afternoon in Downing Street, stood outside the black door of Number 10, soaked and dishevelled, and set the date of 4 July, our very own Independence Day from his similarly washed-up Government.
As soggy Sunak announced the polling day, he did his best to put forward his best attack lines against Labour and Keir Starmer. I know I can’t give an unbiased opinion, but of his lines held any weight. The only decent one he had was when he said about Labour, “I don’t know what their plans are, and I don’t think you do either.” This may be convincing to those less aware of politics, but one of my favourite things about election time is that everyone starts educating themselves on what the parties stand for. Labour’s manifesto is coming, and soon enough, people will get to know what Labour stand for, and Sunak will see his candidates cry in sports centres all across the country.
As he stood at the shortest lectern in Downing Street history, Labour’s 1997 anthem blasting from protestors’ speakers down the road rainwater dripping from his chin, it dawned on me that this image was a perfect metaphor for Sunak’s entire time in office. Unprepared for the political weather, with the constant blaring of an inevitable election defeat drowning out everything he has to say. I watched the entire thing in fits of laughter. And I thought Johnson was a clown.
He parroted the same tired buzzwords and slogans he and his cabinet have been repeating for years, each having no impact on polling in that time except in Labour’s favour. No matter how many times he tells us, the slight economic upturns and reductions in inflation are not being noticed by those who cannot make ends meet each month, neither are the state pension increases of extra funding to the NHS making the slightest material difference to those who rely on them. It’s simply not enough. He came with no new lines, no new attacks on Labour, as he stood there in the pouring rain with no umbrella. He’s the one with no plan, no plan to win this election.
Terrible optics for Sunak aside, the first question I ask myself, and what all others also seem to be asking, is why now? This is an insane time for the Tories to call an election. A recent poll has put them 21 points behind Labour. Sunak’s backbenchers are furious at the timing due their impending unemployment, even to the extent that rumours of another attempted coup are circulating. They’re trying to remove Sunak and install a sixth Tory PM just so that can keep their jobs for another 6 months. It’s pathetic.
I, and most others, thought it would be at least another few months until their polling went up. He could have waited for the economy to grow, for the first refugees got flown to Rwanda, or for Keir Starmer to fart during an interview. Instead he’s gone for the massive announcement of inflation at 2.3%. What?
Perhaps Sunak has shown an element of clairvoyance here. The polls are only heading in one direction, so maybe his pessimism has led this decision. The longer he left it, the worse it could get; that’s been the trend so far. Rwanda may fall flat, Nigel Farage may launch his Reform campaign to steal even more polling points from the Tories, more of his MPs may defect. There is not much that can go right, but much that could still go wrong.
Another theory, and in my mind, the most likely, is that he’s just fed up. He wants to sack this job off and move out to Silicon Valley just in time for his kids to start the US school year in August. I would bet my savings that he will not be an MP for longer than a month if the Tories lose this election. It may also be due to pressure from his own MPs of the same mind, pleading with him to call the election so they can stand down/lose and go do other things, like consulting, or tax evading, or being a landlord.
Even then, the more honourable thing for these honourable members to do would be to show a little backbone, fight the election and lose, then go on to whatever 6-figure salary awaits them. But, predictably, 78 Tory MPs are standing down instead of fighting it out, including Theresa May, Kwasi Kwarteng, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Ben Wallace, Sajid Javid, Matt Hancock, Dominic Raab, Nadhim Zahawi, to name but a few of the high-profile Tory frontbenchers calling it quits before polling day.
In the interest of balance, several Labour and opposition MPs are also standing down, including Mother of the House Harriet Harman, the longest-serving female MP, as well as Dames Margaret Hodge and Margaret Beckett, both long-serving Labour MPs calling it quits before polling day. My more cynical instincts tell me there might be peerages waiting for them before the (hopefully) incoming Labour Government dismantles the House of Lords.
Speaking of my more cynical instincts, and as I have said before on this blog, I’m doubtful that the proposition of a resounding Labour landslide is as close as some commentators are predicting. It’s interesting, that the more right-leaning or far-left-leaning outlets and commentators, those who are most opposed to the prospect of a Labour Government, are the ones who are saying with surety that Labour will return a powerful majority on 5 July. Whereas the more centrist and left-leaning ones, like me, are sceptical.
Perhaps it’s the extreme absence of complacency that has been hard-boiled into us centre-lefties over the past 14 years of consecutive defeats. I hope it isn’t clairvoyance, just a healthy amount of pessimism every political animal should experience before a polling day, especially one as consequential as this. But along with the pessimism, there is optimism also. Britain needs a Labour Government desperately, and here is a real chance to get one with enough strength to deliver the change needed, We’ll be the largest party after the polls close, I don’t doubt that, but by how much is the question causing the most anxiety in the party.
The campaign will be a moderately long one, 6 weeks in total, although the first will undoubtably fly by. I, and others who will be working overtime during these weeks, expect to be exhausted afterwards, but at least this means I can finally book my holiday now! As tired as I will be after the polls close, it will pale in comparison to what Rishi Sunak will go through. He will hate every second of it.
Elections are always shite for sitting PMs, but for sitting PMs consistently 20 points down in the polls? This will be 6 weeks of hell on earth for Sunak. The strategy behind this lengthy campaign may be to try and trip up Starmer and Reeves. He knows they aren’t the smoothest political operators, and wishes to expose them to as much media and public scrutiny as possible for as long as he can, for the Labour Frontbench to feel far less confident than they do presently.
This will probably prove to be the most effective tool in the Tory’s arsenal. The main reason I’m not confident in the possibility of Labour landslide is that most of the positivity we have been receiving has been negative; we are ahead not because of the great things Labour have said and done, but because of the widespread hatred for the Tories. I’m fearful that if the message Labour delivers isn’t suitably strong or radical enough, if the manifesto isn’t bold enough, if we handle the Ming vase too gingerly, then we’ll wind up with a hung Parliament and no workable majority.
That being said, labour’s opening moves in this campaign have so far been positive. After Sunak went back into 10 Downing Street to dry off his suit, Keir Starmer held a press conference, in a dry room, no noisy interruptions, poised neatly between two Union Jacks. He made a decent speech, focussing on the change needed in Britain, even having the one-word slogan stuck on the front of his lectern. The narrative of change vs chaos was central, framing the Tories as entitled and selfish, setting the tone nicely for the campaign.
Keir placed emphasis on service to working people, putting people first and party second. This may not go down so well with more cynical voters, but being in service of working people is not something the Tories can claim. The line that they have been and will continue to pursue their own interests is an accurate one, and one that I expect will resonate with many after Johnson and Truss, peerages, Partygate, and the mini-budget.
By focusing on big-picture issues in the present like the cost of living and the NHS, looking to the future and to the solutions Labour will bring, Keir differentiated himself from Sunak, who was keen to highlight the macro-economic successes of his Government, the nit-picky policy improvements of the past year or so, none of which are being noticed by those still failing to make ends meet each month, waiting months for appointments or surgeries. Sunak also tried to bring the focus to his record as Chancellor during the pandemic and his introduction of furlough (which any sensible Chancellor would have done) and Eat Out to Help Out (which is now confirmed to have contributed to hundreds more COVID deaths). Let’s no forget, whilst he was Chancellor, he also received a fine for breaking lockdown rules at one of Johnson’s boozy Downing Street bashes.
Starmer closed his statement by saying that if the Tories get in for another 5 years they’ll feel entitled to carry on exactly as they are, nothing will change.” This is central to Labour’s strategy. The Tories can’t be change, and change is what we want, it’s what we need. The theme of rebuilding after the Conservatives featured heavily, and will continue to feature heavily. It needs to, not just in literal terms with housing, energy infrastructure, utilities infrastructure and so on, but from a constitutional perspective.
The one issue on neither main parties lips is the single most consequential constitutional change the UK has had in decades; Brexit. No one wants to talk about it, although I understand why. Labour don’t want to alienate the red wall, and the Tories don’t want to draw attention to their failures. But no mentions means no clear plans of action, no public pressure for this issue to be addressed. Labour are seeking some constitutional reform if they get into Government, including abolishing the House of Lords. I want them to go further. I want to see a proportional voting system, and a true incorporation of our new position outside of the EU in place. We have a special relationship with the US, why can’t we have one with the EU now that we’re not members?
Too radical for Starmer, I fear. I fear his lack of radical ideas in this election, the delicate handling of this precious poll lead, will result in a toothless Labour Government moving forward. It’s my hope that once we’ve won, once the Ming vase is safely on the shelf, that things like this can be discussed within Labour and these ideas can be put to the public.
For now, I’m ecstatic that the election is on, finally. Whatever my disagreements with the policy platform being put forwards, this chance cannot be passed up. I’m never going to agree 100% with everything Labour do, to do so would be fanaticism. For now, I’ll focus on doing my bit to get that desperately needed Labour Government, and roll with the punches after the fact.
stay safe
/e