Every time a general election is held in this country, the British people are told we are at a turning point in our history, that the result of our votes will lead to a fundamental shift in the course of our future. This has only been true a handful of times, and certainly in the past 4 elections, things have measurably become worse. As mentioned previously, this current Conservative Government is unique in that living standards have, for the first time, declined during their time in office, when other nations in Europe have bounced back post-pandemic. Unlike previous elections, 2024 really does have the potential to be a turning point, for the UK as a whole, and for our political system and the actors within it.
Both of the main parties find themselves in unique positions. Labour, having emerged from its worst defeat in almost a hundred years, now resurgent in the polls, looks in a stronger position than it was even in 1997. The Conservatives, with failure after failure on the economy, public services, international relations, are facing the very real prospect of their end as a party. Current polls are showing Labour emerging with a 200+ seat majority, costing the Tories in the range of 250 seats. Nothing short of an extinction-level event.
The only realistic prospect for the Tories at this election is defeat, but their future existence will depend upon how grave a blow is dealt to them. If they are lucky and manage to come away with more than 170 seats, their future will be more secure. They will be able to regroup effectively to take their fight to Labour in the next election, able to effectively stave off the encroaching populism from within its own ranks and from the likes of Farage, who will be far less likely to exert influence over them if they retain a decent amount of seats. The One Nation group will likely grow in influence once more, after the consecutive car-crashes of populist and more rightward administrations, bringing the Conservatives back to their natural centre-right homelands. From this position, they will be able to deliver the effective opposition a strong Labour Government will need. This, for me, is the natural place of the Conservative Party.
However, the more likely option looking at current polls is a wipe-out, reducing the Tories to a rump of between 140 – 100 seats. This, I fear, would likely spell doom for the Western world’s most electorally successful party, and would likely have very severe repercussions, not just for the Tories, but for UK politics in general. As much as I disagree with them on most issues, and believe that the nation’s interests will always be better served under a Labour Government, I respect the institution of the Conservative Party and what it represents. An Opposition’s purpose is as a check and balance on Government, and without an effective Opposition, a Government can spiral out of touch with the country it represents.
If the Tories are all but wiped out, and a large share of their votes go to Farage’s Reform Party, who are likely to gain seats, a pact, perhaps even a merger with Reform, would become probable. The chances of this increase if Tory MPs defect to Reform after the election, and overseas, if Trump gets back in the White House and Starmer’s Government continually distance the UK from the his Christian fundamentalist administration, Conservatives may see the electoral benefits of his style of politics.
A further lurch rightwards towards populism, the election of the likes of Suella Braverman, even Farage himself in the event of a merger, as leader, an increase of the xenophobic, culture wars-centred rhetoric are all made more likely with a crushing defeat. Such a new political animal as a Reformed Conservative Party would present a true challenge to a Starmer-led Labour Government, and to the welfare of the UK and its people if such a party were to return a majority in 2029.
As for Labour, a victory at this point is all but certain. I was, until recently, not convinced of a majority, apprehensive of polls tightening the closer we came to July 4. This hasn’t happened, and the only party whose numbers have changed noticeably is Reform, which only increases Labour’s chances of victory.
That being said, 2 weeks is still a very long time in politics, and anything can happen. In the Labour Party, scepticism of victory is baked in after 14 years of defeat, and 90 years out of the last 120 of Tory Prime Ministers. A Labour Government is a rare treat, and we are under no illusions that this trend will take serious graft to buck.
Comparisons between 2024 and 1997 are very popular among the commentariat, given the past few years of polling, but there are stark differences between these two elections which will come to the fore after 4 July. Our situation now is leagues different than what is was in ’97. Our economic prospects are less optimistic than in the 90s, and there is no great wave of global growth for Starmer and his Government to ride as there was for Blair. By this, there will be no immediate opportunities to improve our creaking public services in the way people need. Popularity will not be immediately forthcoming, and I expect a stark plunge in popularity a few months into Government.
Our politics is more complex than in Blair’s time. There are more and new issues that people are incensed by, and the political extremes have widened and become more popular. Starmer has far more ground to cover than Blair did, and hotter tempers to cool, and less charisma and presence than Blair to do it with. I’ve no doubt of his ability as Prime Minister, but the people want to be enthusiastic about their vote, and the enthusiasm is not towards Starmer, but against Sunak and the Tories, and towards change, any change. If Labour can’t deliver the change promised, and enthusiasm dies away after the election, I fear weakened support for Labour, and a short spell in Government.
Expectations of the incoming Government will be high. Things are as bad as many can remember, and change is not just expected, it will be required. A huge majority of 200+ seats, if reached as polling predicts, will leave Labour in a very safe position, and it will be difficult to lose this type of support without major failures or scandal.
As comparatively uninspiring as Starmer may be, it’s not all about him. This, I believe, will be the main difference between him and the Tory Governments of yesteryear. Starmer has surrounded himself with a competent and diverse Shadow Cabinet, in views and policy as well as is background, gender, and orientation. His deputy, Angela Rayner, is a proper counterbalance to Starmer’s more restrained social democratic tendencies. She’s a true red trade union socialist, from a northern, working class background. Together, she and Starmer represent the scope of Labour’s broad left-wing coalition.
The Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is more on Starmer’s level than Rayner’s, but from a pure economics and politics background. She’s all brains; a junior chess champion, PPE at Oxford and a Masters in Economics at LSE. She worked at the Bank of England straight out of Uni, demonstrating her adherence to orthodox economics, but turned down a high-paying job at Goldman Sachs after a stint in retail banking, demonstrating her social conscience. Not to mention she will be the first woman living at 11 Downing Street.
As for the rest of the Shadow Cabinet, Yvette Cooper and David Lammy at Home and Foreign Secretaries respectively are both Labour veterans, with previous ministerial experience in the Blair and Brown Governments. Both from respectable in law or economics, both dependable, progressive politicians expected to deliver in their new offices. Wes Streeting at Health has been praised for his forward-thinking, pragmatic policies, not to mention an eagerness to work with medical unions to end strike deadlocks and deliver fair deals for our NHS workforce. Johnny Reynolds at Business and Trade, along with Liz Kendall at Work and Pensions, have introduced bold worker’s and employment rights policies including Labour’s New Deal for Working People, which has been welcomed by Unions as a progressive step forwards after years of Tory apathy in this area.
To name all those on the Shadow Frontbench worthy of note and recognition would take an entire article, but you get the point. Labour’s broad church is represented within their Cabinet, a team capable and focused on delivering real change to measurably improve people’s lives. At the head of this team, the man who put it together, whilst it isn’t all about him, a great deal of the direction of a future Labour Government will inevitably come from Keir Starmer, a man who, in my opinion, is entirely worthy of the job.
We’re all very aware of his background at this point; he’s harped on about it for long enough. Toolmaker dad, NHS mum, pebbledash semi, Director of Public Prosecutions, blah blah blah. But there is a reason he draws so much attention to his previous work as a lawyer and a Crown Prosecutor. It demonstrates a long history of good, hard work in service to the public, something lacking in most PMs and Ministers of the past 14 years.
His history of work previous to his time in Parliament are uncontroversial in this respect, as I’ve no doubt the right-wing toilet rags will have done their fair share of digging for any crumbs of dirt they can find, so far coming up short. The controversy in Keir’s career come only after he entered politics, his time campaigning for and supporting Jeremy Corbyn in the run up to 2019 is frequently referenced by the Tories, including the votes he cast and the policies he supported during that time. I suppose he could have resigned his Shadow Cabinet position in protest, but as strong as the hard left of the party was in those days, the future of his career within Labour would have given him enough reason to stay on, as morally dubious as such a decision may have been.
Most of the promises he made in his leadership campaign have been dropped, but I feel this is more a symptom of the pragmatism I have referenced, rather than a desire for power as his critics like to say. If his lust for power was so great, why appoint a Cabinet full of characters stronger than him who may one day replace him? Kier may not be the best showman politician, but he has learned the ropes of the dirty game and played it near masterfully and with almost uncharacteristic ruthlessness. His purge of the hard left from the party demonstrates this. He wants labour to be approachable by as wide a spectrum of the UK public as possible, and the presence of hard leftists and closeted antisemites would hurt chances of a Labour Government, a goal any Brit left of centre should strive towards.
His views do seem to have softened over the years, going from writing for a Trotskyist magazine in his youth to being widely described as Tory lite is quite a swing, but this also shows a virtue again sorely lacking in our politics of late; compromise and pragmatism. Everyone with half a brain can see we aren’t in a position for the sweeping reforms seen in the early Blair years, and no one knows this better than Starmer.
Good socialist policies of this type are a long way off, but in a sensible pair of hands and with guidance back to growth as a priority, it hopefully won’t be long until the reforms and real change needed to launch the UK back into the upper echelons of the global community won’t be far ahead. Keir will work hard towards this end, just as he has in his career leading up to this moment, unassuming and quiet, and, God willing, scandal-free, getting on with the mission of improving the lives of the British people, something I truly believe he cares deeply about.
stay safe
/e