With so much going on in my own country, I haven’t been looking to what was going on across the Atlantic. I was terrified of it, and thanked my lucky stars that I didn’t have the same choice as our American cousins do, but still the choice already appeared clear to me.
The US holds its Presidential election on 5 November this year, and out of the plethora of elections being held across the globe this year, theirs will be perhaps the most consequential, and the most highly anticipated. And rightly so. No less than it was in 2020, the fate of American democracy is in the balance.
Before I go any further, let me address the elephant in the room. The strength of feeling from all sides in this election is at an all-time high, and the rhetoric being used has become increasingly inflammatory. Language that deliberately incites hatred or fear or wilfully misleads should have no place in our system. Political violence, in all forms, must be rejected from the liberal democratic way of life. We do not shoot at our political opponents in a democracy, but the type of language and content being produced in this election has led someone to do just that.
There are many who despise President Trump as much as I do, but his right to Freedom of Speech is enshrined in the American Constitution, no matter how false or intolerant he may be. It shouldn’t drive anyone to try and kill him. This man must be beaten at the ballot box once again. Only then, after 2 consecutive defeats (and 3 consecutive popular vote defeats), will the message be defeated, as well as the man. Killing Trump is not only against the law, but it does not defeat the message; it makes it louder. The attempt on Trump’s life must be condemned and I hope the rest of this election, and other election this year, can be conducted peacefully and without violence.
That being said, Donald Trump poses a real and significant threat to not only the future of American Democracy, but the position of the US as a global guarantor, in economic and security terms, and to global security itself. Just as he did in 2020.
In 2016, the Republican Party did not expect to win with Trump; they were not prepared for it. The more insidious parts of its rightest wing, those parts that became the MAGA movement, were not prepared for a candidate like Trump and did not plan accordingly. Now that they have had since 2020 to prepare for his return to office, they have done just that. What is known as “Project 2025”, is essentially a manifesto for a potential Trump second term created by a conservative political think tank named The Heritage Foundation. It seeks to dismantle many parts of the US Government bureaucracy and reshape others to consolidate authority with the President, and promote conservative Christian ideology among the public.
It’s as bad as it sounds. The Heritage Foundation seeks to install a Christian fundamentalist authoritarian government with Donald Trump as dictator. Policies such as making civil servants into political appointees, with loyalty to the President, and violate the 1st Amendment by reshaping the government with Christian zealotry. It seeks to reform American society away from liberalism and tolerance towards strict conservatism and white nationalism, dismantling inclusion programmes and rooting out what it calls “anti-white racism”. Party officials would take control of various government agencies, including the FBI and Department of Justice. Funding for climate research and public health initiatives would be cut, with policies favouring fossil fuels and outlawing abortion put forwards.
Granted, this is just a proposal at present, dependent on Trump becoming President and the GOP taking control of Congress, and can only be suggested by the authors. However, Ronald Reagan took up two thirds of the policies in their 1981 publication, and Trump attempted the same amount of 2015’s volume. Many of Project 2025’s authors and bankrollers are deeply involved with the Trump campaign, including members of his administration, and as the Republicans lean further and further whichever way Trump shoves them, the chance of America creating a proper dictator is scarily close to reality.
Trump himself has denounced it on his Truth Social platform, and it has drawn widespread criticism from political commentators and democratic scholars from across the political spectrum, the ultimate aims of the project abundantly clear to all those who aren’t blinded by factionalism (at least Trump’s brand of factionalism). However, just because Trump denounces something or says he has no knowledge of something does not mean this is true. In fact, it definitely means the opposite. The type of leaders he has expressed admiration for across the world demonstrates clearly how he would feel about being a dictator himself; he’s said himself that he would aim to be a dictator “on day one”.
Trump’s bid for a second term should not only be worrisome for Americans, but for the rest of the world as well. He would aim to create a dictatorship at home, but his plans for abroad have potential to be even more destructive. He has spoken out against NATO on many occasions, and also expressed his belief that the war in Ukraine was NATO’s fault, not Putin’s. He has a great admiration for Putin and has shown deferential treatment towards the despot in his previous administration. He has disregarded reports from US intelligence agencies in favour of Putin’s word, and has fawned and praised Putin at most opportunities to discuss him. He is not ashamed of his staunchly anti-Ukraine stance on the war, and it is likely he will withdraw all funding for Ukraine as one of the first acts of his new presidency. Doubtless, he and Putin will collaborate on a deal which will involve large concessions from Ukraine and little from Russia if he goes through with his plans.
Trump’s disdain for NATO is no secret, and he has floated the idea of withdrawing the US from NATO if he wins his second term. In the history of bad ideas, this ranks among the most insane. If he goes through with this, with the stroke of a Sharpie, the foundations upon which our current rules-based international order was built would be ripped away. The global security promised by NATO would fade as the bloc’s strongest member withdraws support for the others, and all of a sudden, NATO turns from a roaring lion into a mewling kitten. This, along with the withdrawal of US funding for Ukraine, would deliver a swift victory for Russia in the war, tipping the global scales in favour of the oppressors and dictators.
A Russian victory in Ukraine would also embolden other autocrats around the world to do as they please with the promise of American retribution gone. Trump also admires Xi Jinping in China, who would turn his eyes to Taiwan as US naval presence in the straits undoubtably shrinks away. Serbia may also be tempted to enforce its claims on its Balkan neighbours, as will Azerbaijan against Georgia. The rapidly deteriorating situation in the Middle East will likely devolve into a regional war between Israel and Iran, and encourage Netanyahu and his far-right thugs to murder still more innocents and ethnically cleanse those parts of Palestine they consider theirs. North Africa is still reeling from coup season, and the war in Sudan remains one of the most deadly in the world. I doubt Trump even knows it is happening.
In short, Trump becoming President again would create an even more dangerous and unstable world than we have at the moment, which is already at its least safe and stable in many decades. Autocrats would gain victory, global security would be compromised, and those already experiencing hardship, suffering and death will see no aid from the US for at least the next four years, and depending on the lasting damage Trump may do to the apparatus of the American state, for a long time to come as well.
If you hadn’t guessed already, Trump part 2 would be chaos, within the US and without, and it is in the best interests of the free world and all freedom-loving humans to oppose him and everything he stands for with as much effort as possible. So, who has the Democratic Party nominated to defeat him? With whom do the hopes and dreams of the free world rest?
Joe Biden. Shit.
I’ve said before that Biden has been an above-average President. He will leave the US with a healthy economy, stabilised after the pandemic, with American families richer than ever, nearly 15 million more jobs, and a booming stock market. More Americans have health insurance than ever before, and the cost of living in the US is steadily decreasing whilst wages climb. Inflation has been stubbornly high, and there is still staggering wealth inequality in the US, but overall his time has been beneficial for the American people. He does not need to run for a second term.
His debate performance against Trump last month demonstrated clearly what most had been speculating. He is too old to complete a second term. There is only one goal Democrats should be considering in this election; preventing a second Trump term. It may be their last chance to win an election, and Joe Biden cannot repeat his successes in 2020. His already lukewarm polling numbers have plummeted since the debate, and the voices calling for him to stand down now includes Hollywood celebrities as well as senior Democrats.
At the beginning of his administration, his occasional public gaffes and slurred words were easy to just shrug off; he was still doing a good job as President, and his elderly outward appearance did not match his youthful mind and drive. That argument has now fallen apart. Whether he was ill during the debate or not, Americans have lost confidence, and theirs is the only opinion that matters. Biden has done his country immeasurable service during his political career. From when he first took his seat in the Senate in 1973, to his inauguration as 46th President in 2021, he has been a titan of American politics, and perhaps his greatest service to his country was his victory against Trump in 2020, saving the US and the world from a second term. He has played his part well, but it is time for him to go.
If he does not, defeat for the Democrats is all but certain. Personally, I do not see how Biden can hang on after that debate, but the only person who can make him step down, in the end, is himself. The US system is not like here in the UK, where a senior party official can step into the office of a failing Prime Minister with a glass of whisky and a revolver. The President is not answerable to his party like the PM is. The delegates votes and the campaign funds are in his name; it is him running for President, not the Democratic Party.
So why doesn’t he? Even if he still feels he can be a good President for another 4 years, surely he doesn’t think he can beat Trump? If he does, I would say his ego has got the best of him, and the only one who can talk some sense to him, if not senior Democrats and George Clooney, is the First Lady Jill Biden. For the good of the country, Biden cannot continue.
So who could replace him? Many names have been thrown around by commentators, most notably California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Secretary for Transport Pete Buttigieg, among others, but for me, the surest choice is also the most obvious; Biden’s VP, Kamala Harris.
Harris is not well known among Americans just yet. She performs badly in polling, sometimes even worse than Biden, and for those who will never vote for a 2nd Biden term, she is a continuity candidate at a time when Americans are crying out for change. On top of that, it pains me to say, she is a woman, and a woman of colour at that, and for many Americans (mostly those in the Trump camp) she is not what they are looking for. In some American households, people just aren’t ready for a candidate like her.
Why then, with all that said, would Harris make a good pick for the new nominee? Simply put, most Americans have already made up their minds. This election, like so many others before it, will come down to a few hundred thousand voters in a dozen or so swing states, those who perhaps are not the most politically engaged. America wants change, that has been acknowledged, and if Harris were to step into Biden’s shoes to run against Trump, the change she would represent on a debate stage with Trump would be demonstrable before she even opened her mouth. Moreover, her name is already on the money as the other half of Biden’s ticket. The transition from a Biden-Harris campaign to a Harris-TBC campaign would be smoother than for a newcomer.
The more Americans learn about Harris, the more they like her; that is reflected in her polling. With each public appearance and statement, her approval figures rise. Democrats and never-Trumpers are itching to get behind someone, anyone, with a chance to beat the diaper-wearing man-baby. If Harris was to run against Trump, I predict voters will flock to her.
She has the enthusiasm, the press chops, the policy detail (something severely lacking in the Trump campaign, who prefer name-calling and personal attacks to policy discussions) and most importantly, the youth to beat Trump. Granted, she’s no spring chicken herself at 59 years old, but she’s far younger than Trump, and if she steps up to the plate now, Trump’s entire “old man” argument in this campaign gets flipped back onto him in a second. Also, I’m happy to say, she’s a woman, and a woman of colour at that, and after the glass ceiling remained unbroken in 2016 by Hilary Clinton, I expect most Americans will be excited to see what’s on the other side of it, to bring their country firmly into the 21st century with their first female President.
This is all still hypothetical at this point, until Biden sees the wood for the trees and calls it a day. The longer he stays there, the more difficult the road ahead for the next candidate will be, but of course this will all be obvious to Biden. He must know that this is bigger than him and how well he thinks he can do in office. In all honesty, if Biden does not drop out and continues his campaign, he will still have my support; I would support a donkey with a blue rosette over Trump. Doubtless he will continue to have the support of all others of a similar mindset, who know explicitly the danger Trump poses in domestic and international terms, but he will not win. Those few hundred thousand voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, etc, those who long for change, will vote for the only candidate who represents any material change from Biden’s current administration, spelling untold chaos for their country and the world in doing so.
For that is what Trump represents; chaos and his own self-interest. He will represent all the worst parts of American society to further his own ends, and align the exceptional US, the strongest beacon of democracy and freedom in the world, with the autocrats, tyrants, and state-sponsored murderers of the global stage. Biden has already saved America once by beating Trump. He must save America again by letting someone else do it for him the second time.
stay safe
/e