Last week, after decades of struggle, millions displaced, and many hundreds of thousands dead, the brutal Assad dictatorship in Syria was overthrown. A coalition of rebel forces, led by the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marched into Damascus after a series of sweeping victories against pro-Assed forces beginning just a few weeks earlier.
The speed of this monumental victory has been met with shock in every corner of the globe, including by the Syrian people, and indeed, HTS and the rebels themselves, who expected stronger resistance from Assad’s forces than they encountered. The Middle East, already sparking with turmoil and war in renewed intensity since October 7, has experienced another critical change in its makeup. This transition of power will have far reaching effects, within the region, and without.
The offensive began on November 27, 2024, when HTS and its allies launched their assault against the pro-Assad Syrian Arab Army across multiple governorates. By November 29, rebel forces had entered Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. The momentum continued as opposition forces advanced southward, capturing Hama and Homs by early December. On December 7, the outskirts of Damascus were reached, and by December 8, the capital fell to the rebels.
President Assad fled the country, seeking asylum in Russia, marking his long-awaited defeat and the overthrow of the last dictatorial Ba’athist regime in the Middle East, the most notable in recent history being Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, toppled in 2003.
In the immediate aftermath of HTS’s victory, a transitional government was established to navigate Syria through the expected period of tumult. Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly of the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a former Al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist and leader of HTS, has emerged as the de facto President after Assad’s flight, assuming control over most of Syria.
Despite his radical past, al-Sharaa has pledged to form an inclusive government and commanded his forces to renounce revenge, aiming to reconstruct Syria and achieve unity amid deep-seated sectarian divisions.
As troubling as his past fighting against Western forces as a jihadist is to us on this side of the Mediterranean, the initial noises from his nascent government are reassuring. He has pledged to establish Syria as a democracy, which, in a region which has historically struggled with the concept, would be an incredibly welcome and progressive development. Al-Sharaa has also promised equality to Syria’s many ethnic and religious minorities, including the Alawites, a sect from which Assad and his forebears drew significant support.
Al-Sharaa has included technocrats and former opposition figures in his new government, although key positions have remained in the hands of his former rebel allies. To be expected. He’s already set about emptying Assad’s prisons of political prisoners, and releasing information of the dead and missing to Syrian families, a crystal clear message that he does not intend to emulate his predecessor in any way.
The administration’s stated primary objectives include establishing transparency, securing international acceptance, and alleviating economic sanctions to stabilize the nation’s battered economy. He and his new government will need to prove they have turned their back on the old ways, and demonstrate their commitment to human rights and individual liberties for the Syrian people. With characters like Trump back in the picture, I don’t fancy al-Sharaa’s chances of convincing the Americans of a Damascene conversion (pardon the pun), but as the US withdraws from international leadership once again, this may not be as much of a problem as it may have been under a more competent US President.
Al-Sharaa has even mentioned his intention to disband HTS as a group, it purpose in toppling Assad now served, to make way for new and formal governmental departments and ministries. Time will tell if al-Sharaa and his victorious rebels succeed in establishing what sounds to be a Western-influenced government, but that he and his officials have stated this as their intention is very promising.
In terms of the situation in the Middle East, Assad’s defeat will prove a pivotal moment in the development of ongoing conflicts and tensions. As a key member of the so-called “Axis of Resistance”, Assad’s regime was used by Iran to ferry weapons and supplies through Syria and into Lebanon for use by Hezbollah against Israel. That route is now shut, for the time being, but if al-Sharaa is serious about his pragmatic and mature approach to place Syria in good standing on the world stage with the nations that matter, he’ll refrain from engaging his new government in similar proliferation.
He’s no friend of Israel; he was born in the Golan Heights, a region Israel has broken international agreements to occupy, and he will no doubt seek to reclaim the territory of his birth. But just because he has beef with Israel does not mean he should be an ally to Iran or its associates. That reclamation should be done by diplomatic means, not through force of arms. As impressive as HTS’s victory has been, it was against a demoralised, depleted, and exhausted pro-Assad army. The IDF would crush him, and he’d do well to heed that.
The international community, excluding the so-called “Axis of Resistance”, and other vicious autocrats like Putin (in whose kleptocracy Assad now cowers), the response has been cautiously optimistic. European leaders expressed relief at the end of Assad’s dictatorship and emphasized the importance of unity and reconciliation in Syria’s path forward. Governments have highlighted the need to protect ethnic and religious minorities and called for an inclusive political process, echoing the sentiments of al-Sharaa. That Western governments and a former jihadist seem to be, for the moment, singing from the same hymn sheet, is not something I had on my geopolitical bingo card for this year, but I am not sceptical about Syria’s chances.
Having grown up with Syria on the news on an almost daily basis at the height of the war and ISIS insurgency in the early-mid 2010s, with the name of Syria being almost synonymous with carnage and massacre throughout much of my adolescence, I was, frankly, ecstatic at the news of its liberation from Assad and the pro-democracy sentiments of its new leaders. The Middle East needs more democracy desperately. The only such nation in the region is Israel, which is not covering itself in glory at present to put it as mildly as I possibly can.
If a majority-Arab, majority-Muslim Levant nation, with as rich and stunning a culture and history as Syria, can emerge from one of the bloodiest periods of instability in living memory as a free and equal democratic state, unshackled by sanction and religious dogma, the entire world should be thankful for it. Syria has potential to serve as an example to its neighbours and brothers not just in the Levant, but throughout the Arab world, that this way of governance is indeed the right one. I’ve all my digits crossed for the brave Syrian people, and their ambitious new leader.
stay safe
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