The UK Government is suffering blow after blow to its credibility in recent months, with the latest wound being dealt by voters in Tiverton & Honiton and Wakefield.
The two constituencies have held by-elections recently as both of their sitting Conservative MPs have stepped down following sexual misconduct scandals.
The first, Imran Ahmad Khan (Wakefield) stepped down following being found guilty of sexually assaulting a teenage boy, and the second, Neil Parish (Tiverton & Honiton), did the same after being caught watching porn in the House of Commons chamber.
The manner of these MPs dismissals will have had an impact on how their constituents voted, but these elections have been unique in more ways than one.
In Tiverton and Honiton, a safe Tory seat since its inception, the Liberal Democrat candidate Richard Foord overturned a majority of over 24,000 votes, winning 52.8% of the vote.
It was the largest majority overturned in a by-election in British political history, and is being regarded as the worst outcome the Tories could have hoped for.
In Wakefield, Labour had a less resounding result, but a good showing for their candidate nonetheless. Simon Lightwood secured 47.9% of the vote, overturning a majority of 3,358.
Wakefield is one of the so-called ‘Red Wall’ seats in the North of England, and was traditionally Labour until the 2019 General Election, when Boris Johnson’s Conservatives won it from them after nearly 90 years.
The ‘Red Wall’ was knocked down due to what is regarded as a single-issue vote: Brexit. Wakefield voted convincingly to leave the EU, but now that Brexit has been pushed to the back of many voter’s agendas, this result will have given hope to Kier Starmer to rebuild the ‘Red Wall’ in the next General Election.
This is the first time a sitting Government has lost two by-elections in the same day, showcasing a high level of tactical voting in each constituency, with voters lending their votes to whichever candidate was most likely to beat the Conservatives.
By all except Johnson, his cabinet, and a few of his most loyal backbenchers, these results are being seen as catastrophic for the Conservatives, emblematic of the public mood towards the government and it’s leaders.
The high levels of tactical voting in these by-elections, particularly by former Tory voters, should be particularly worrying for Johnson. If these results are replicated on a nationwide scale in the next General Election, the Tories are in for a historic defeat.
Predictably, the Government is chalking these results up to simple mid-term blues, exacerbated by extraneous international circumstances that are quite out of the Government’s control.
Johnson is still unwilling to even acknowledge that he and his behaviour is at the core of the nation’s discontent with his Government, and he is adamant that he will stay in his role and “get on with the job of delivering on the people’s priorities.”
However, his Government’s lack of a tangible plan to deal with the myriad national and international crises, along with the constant barrage of scandal and sleaze from Number 10 and the Tory backbenches, has meant that the priority of the people is to have a new Prime Minister, one that is able to focus on the real issues facing the UK without any distractions.
Johnson is incapable of doing this. If he truly cared about the electability of his party, he would step down, as his leadership is becoming a drag on public perception of the Tories, and more and more of his allies are starting to wise up to this fact.
Oliver Dowden’s resignation as Conservative Party Chairman has had just as large an impact on the party as the election results, being the first Cabinet resignation in Johnson’s tenure, but I expect not the last.
Brexit is once again rearing its head after Johnson promised us he would bring an end to the issue, the cost of living crisis is worsening, Russia continues to make gains in Ukraine, and the UK is set for a summer of discontent as fears of a general strike loom.
And on top of the whole steaming pile of crisis and misfortune sits Boris Johnson, parroting the same lines he has for months now; that he is the only one who can, and is, solving the problems.
If it wasn’t obvious before, it is obvious now. He cannot. Whether he lacks the wherewithal, or just doesn’t have the enthusiasm to do so doesn’t matter. He is as incompetent a Prime Minister that the UK has ever had, and the day for his dismissal cannot come soon enough.
stay safe
/e