Whenever decisions like this are made, I always find myself making excuses to be optimistic. With Brexit, I reasoned that cooler heads in Parliament would prevail and a workable deal would be made. When Trump won his first term, I though that Congressional Democrats and moderate Republicans would rein him in. When the Conservatives won the 2019 general election, I thought they’d rise to the challenge in the interests of the people. I have been proved wrong every time.
So this time, I’m not going to bother trying to convince myself things will be alright. I won’t pretend that Trump will see the light and become a good person, or that those around him will offer reasoned, unbiased council. With this result, America will regress backwards. How far remains to be seen, but after Trump’s term is done, I predict that quality of life in nearly all aspects of American society will be measurably impacted. Americans will be poorer, unhealthier, less equal, and less free. We, as in you and I, dear reader, we who know the danger Trump and his movement poses, are in for four years of disappointment, fear, and rage.
And rage you must. I’m unsure how many of my readers hail from the States, but if you’re there, I implore you to rage. Voice your concern and anger at every available opportunity. Write to your representatives, go to rallies, share posts on social media, challenge those who have been consumed by Trumpworld as much as you can. Coming from a guy whose party spent the last 14 years in opposition, I can tell you the mindset is not easy, nor particularly mentally healthy, but you must oppose this madness. As much as I’ve always counted myself lucky I’m not American, would that I was one now, I’d scream my opposition to the rafters wherever there are ears to hear me. Mass deportations and camps for undocumented migrants, degradation of abortion rights, reduced access to affordable healthcare, bias to the 1%, erosion of worker’s rights and affirmative action, reducing wages, inflating currency, the endless stream of lies and misinformation. It will all happen. It must all be opposed.
As far as I am concerned, you Americans made this bed, and you must lie in it. I’ve lost a lot of sympathy for the American populace as a whole with this result. The reasons given by many for their decision to vote Trump in for a second non-consecutive term (only the second President in US history to have done so) have made me lose sympathy; Trump aligns with Christian values, the economy performed better under Trump, Trump will get a grip of Southern border crossings, etc. It beggars belief that views like this won Trump executive power a second time, but none are true. After the 2016 result, commentators thronged together to say, “this is not who we are”. His first victory was treated as an aberration, a break from normality. Expectations of the American people were set high after Obama’s victories in previous elections. Now, we can see plainly that this is who the American people are.
Moreover, Trump’s elephantine shortcomings as a businessman, politician, and human being have been, for the most part, completely overlooked. His felony charges, culpability for sexual assault and rape, the racism, homophobia, misogyny. It does not compute with me that these could be ignored so entirely. It isn’t the case that people voted for Trump because of these things (although it can be said with absolute certainty that all the racists, homophobes, and misogynists in the US voted for Trump unanimously); record numbers of black, Hispanic, and female voters chose him over Kamala. People voted with their wallets here. The perception, not fact, that the economy was healthier under Trump than Biden, was the key factor.
Blame for this result, I feel, can be laid squarely at the feet of one man. Joe Biden never had a chance of winning the election, and his hubris has resulted in a heavy cost for his nation. If he had swallowed his pride and dropped out at the earliest opportunity to allow Kamala to properly introduce herself to the American people, and stay out of the limelight as much as possible, this election would have gone very differently. Biden is a historically unpopular President, who Americans blame almost entirely for their current economic misfortune. He was always going to be a detriment to a Democratic campaign, and it was his stubbornness which handed the keys to the White House back to MAGA. He may have been to thank for Trump’s defeat in 2020, but he carries the lion’s share of the blame for his new victory. Ah, hindsight, my old friend.
However, this blog is called International Thinking (somewhat paradoxically, as many, if not most of my articles relate to domestic politics in my own country), so in that spirit, I’ll not focus too much on domestic US politics in this article following Trump’s victory. It should speak volumes that the threat Trump poses on the global stage are greater than the ones he poses at home, if the very foundations of American democracy are at stake.
The world is steps away from disaster as it is. Whatever peace there once was in the Middle East before October 7th hangs on the edge of a knife. Ukraine faces defeat against expansionist Russia. Democracies are turning into autocracies across the world, and millions lack the resources to feed themselves even in the wealthiest nations. All set against the backdrop of burning forests, rising seas, flooded cities, and oceans full of plastic.
And who has the United States, the shining city on the hill, the beacon of democracy and freedom in the world, produced to lead the free world through these most challenging times in decades? Who indeed.
With this result, unfortunately, I think it is time to consider the possibility, or maybe prepare for the inevitability, of Ukraine losing the war. Victory for Ukraine is restoration of all territories, including Crimea. If Trump keeps his promise to negotiate a peace deal which does not include at least Russian commitments to relinquish all Ukrainian territories, it will mean defeat. Trump, given his pro-Russian sentiments, will believe certain concessions from the Ukrainians to be reasonable, whether the Ukrainians agree or not. This may then embolden Putin to make more territorial claims on ex-Soviet land, which will come swiftly after Ukraine’s defeat to take advantage of a weakened US under Trump.
The only way Ukraine stays in the fight is if the rest of the world steps up to fill the void, which won’t go over well with strengthening anti-Ukraine sentiment in much of Europe’s more powerful nations. I don’t envision this happening. The UK has enough economic woes as it is without ramping up donations to Ukraine through efficiency cuts to Government departments or other public services. Thankfully, there are very few anti-Ukraine voices in Parliament, and the Commons is united in support for Ukraine. However, the five Reform UK MPs, most notably Trump’s British mouthpiece Nigel Farage, will voice their opposition to any increases in funding for Ukraine if discussions begin, and given the vote share won by Reform in the general election, a not-insignificant minority of Brits will echo this opposition. Labour does not need any more opposition right now, so I don’t see the UK filling the US’s shoes in Ukraine any time soon.
The EU, UK, and other regional and global partners and allies will need to share the burden between themselves if Ukraine is to hold out for any stretch of time. Even then, it may not be enough. The international community will not stand for Putin annexing Ukraine in its entirety, but he will claim most of eastern Ukraine for his own. Kyiv will stand, but NATO membership will be off the table for Ukraine for the foreseeable future, which means there will be little to stop Putin from launching fresh invasions from the newly-fortified Russian regions should he choose to do so. And without US backing (for at least the next 4 years), Ukraine will be limited in the resistance it can put up. Short of foreign troops landing in Ukraine to bolster their ranks, which is either impossible or will lead to major upheaval in the lands those troops come from, the Ukraine we know now may be unrecognisable in 2028.
On the other side of the world, cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan have been strained in recent years, even after Trump left the White House the first time round. Tension and mistrust are rife, with Taipei’s assertiveness in rejecting Beijing’s claims of sovereignty and promotion of a distinct Taiwanese identity stoking the flames of division. The PRC have not sought to placate Taiwan either, increasing military pressure by conducting frequent air and naval exercises near Taiwan and intensifying diplomatic efforts to isolate the island internationally. Not only this, but CCP officials have become more aggressive in their rhetoric surrounding reunification, a central raison d’être for their regime. Taiwan, in turn, has sought closer ties to the US and its allies, bolstering its own military and engaging more with the rest of the world.
Trump’s victory will stretch this situation to its breaking point. He is no friend of China, and has been vocal in his intentions to start another trade war with them, including 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the US, for no apparent reason whatsoever. He was also vocal in his support for Taiwan in his last term, emphasising his support with military aid and diplomatic recognition. Although this is a stance I agree with, the importance of a light touch in this situation as to not flare tensions higher is imperative. Despite the size of his fingers, Trump is not capable of light touches, in any aspect of life.
Doubtless, Trump will seek to strengthen US commitment to Taiwan and counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific, including additional support for Taiwan’s military. Dependent on Taiwanese internal policy, Taipei may even be emboldened enough to aspire to greater international recognition, a move which will be seen as a challenge by Beijing. An aggressive response from China is made all the more likely in any circumstance now that Trump is back, in the form of intensified military exercises in the straits and diplomatic pressure on Taipei. China seeks to isolate Taiwan as much as possible, forcing them to rely on China to the point that reunification become a necessity. Trump will do all he can to ensure that does not happen, thereby pushing East Asia to the brink. Any miscalculation, any threat too harsh, any missile fired a few miles off its target, could set the whole powder keg alight.
So, Eastern Europe and East Asia both stand at a precipice with this one decision made by the American people. But the place most at risk of falling into a horrifying regional war may already slip into it without the prompting of the new POTUS. A region which has already seen its fair share of horror this year.
Dividing lines have been drawn in the Middle East. Iran and Israel stand at each other’s throats, with both sides having fired shots at the other. Lives have been lost already, and whilst both sides are calculating each step they take with utmost scrutiny, all it takes is one missile falling into the wrong building for these old enemies to finally meet on a battlefield. If that happens, I fear the daily massacres in Gaza will pale by comparison.
Trump’s election will be welcome news only to a few in the region; to Netanyahu and his cabinet, and to the hardest-line right wing Israelis. Trump has always had little to no regard for the plight of the Palestinian people, and to say his re-election will set peace in the region even further back is perhaps the most obvious statement of the week. Peace will only come with the withdrawal of Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, international recognition of the State of Palestine, and a two-state solution both sides agree on. The October 7th massacre set these possibilities back decades, and any heavy-handed intervention from Trump will only exacerbate this delay. And delays in peace mean more oppression, more theft, more hatred, and more death.
Trump’s hard-line anti-Iran stance in his previous term, characterised by stringent sanctions and withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal, will be echoed in the coming four years. Iran has already been backed far into a corner by Israel, with lukewarm American support under Biden. If Trump was to step up American support by redirecting resources from Ukraine, Netanyahu and his band of settler thugs would feel emboldened to not only continue the bloodbath in Gaza and expand settlements there and in the West Bank, but also to step up their aggression against Iran, safe in the knowledge that the world’s most powerful military would back them each step.
As for the aforementioned bloodbath, as of Trump’s election, over 40,000 civilians have now been killed in Gaza, mostly women and children. Despite this, Trump will not see a reason to intervene diplomatically on behalf of the Palestinians, or engage with Palestinian leadership, or to voice any concern at the ongoing slaughter of innocents. The outrage the rest of the free world is feeling (or should be feeling) will not be shown by the man meant to be leading those nations towards the eventual goal of just peace. There is no end in sight for the Palestinians. Trump just doesn’t care.
But perhaps, I may have touched on the one silver lining in all of this. A very, very thin silver lining, but a silver lining nonetheless.
America, the as the free world’s leading nation, will not be thus for the next 4 years. Trump has no dedication or respect for the rules-based international order, and so he will pull the US back from its role as a global leader and a fiscal and security guarantor for the free world, just as he did in 2016. The world will once again lack positive leadership, and whilst this may have a detrimental effect on developing nations and those most at risk from aggressors like Putin and Xi, in the medium to long term, it may lead the world more towards a multipolar system, by forcing other regional powers to step up to fill the void.
The EU grows in power and influence as one of the world’s foremost economies, and the UK has recently recommitted itself to rebuilding its broken relationship with the EU. With the right macroeconomic headwinds, the new post-Brexit UK-EU partnership might be able to step into a new role as a regional guarantor in Europe.
On the other side of the world, democracies and free nations are stepping forward more boldly in these uncertain times. Japan has begun to recognise how unsafe the global picture has become, and is starting to explore new military and defence capabilities. Australia, strengthening ties with traditional allies through agreements such as AUKUS, is presenting a robust opposition to China in its own backyard.
There are no shortage of allies to peace in any corner of the world, even if adversaries also grow more numerous, and spring from unexpected places. As it stands, Trump thinks he holds all the cards. The world needs the US, but the US doesn’t need the world. Or so he thinks. As the US alienates itself more and more from the international community, as it shirks the rules put in place to maintain peace and security, the rest of the free world has been dealt an unexpected hand. This may just be the push needed to form a new global order; a truly multipolar system. Globalisation can still happen in earnest without the US. It’ll take longer, and the road will be more difficult that it could have seen, but the chance is there for the taking. Who will step forward and take it?
stay safe
/e