Winter is upon us, and with it always comes challenges for our National Health Service. Each winter, the NHS experiences higher volumes of patients as illnesses such as flus spread at faster rates due to the colder temperatures, and injuries from accidents also spike due to ice on roads and pavements.
This year, the first winter after the Covid-19 pandemic not effected by social distancing and lockdown, was always expected to be particularly challenging for the NHS, as cases of Covid rise with the cold weather and more social interaction, as well as the normal rise in flus and colds.
On top of these already significant pressures, there has been a recent and growing spike in the number of Strep-A and Scarlet Fever cases in the UK, especially among young children. Whilst all of these listed pressures would have already made the winter of 2022 a particularly difficult one for the NHS, it is not illness that will make this the most demanding winter in recent memory.
The UK is in the initial stages of one of the longest recessions our economy will experience in decades, according to all competent economic forecasts. Inflation is at 9.3% (as of this article’s publication), its highest point in years, and the Bank of England has recently raised interest rates to 3.5% to combat this expected to peak at 4%, its highest since the Great Recession of 2008.
As a result of this, workers across the UK, particularly in the public sector, have experienced the largest increase in the cost of living since the 1950s as wage increases fail to keep up with rising prices. This has pushed many working people to the brink; people are going hungry, choosing between feeding their children and keeping the house warm, and resorting to foodbanks. Rising malnutrition and colder-than-average houses will only make the situation in the NHS worse.
Strikes are happening across both the public and private sectors, most notably in the rail industry, but also postal workers, DVSA staff, National Highways staff, Civil Service staff, and most importantly, nurses and ambulance drivers. Strikes are scheduled throughout December, with every day between the 7th of December and 13th of January effected in some way, with more expected to come in the coming months.
The Royal College of Nursing has never balloted its members to strike before this year, but they are out of their wards, standing on freezing picket lines as I write this article. I must stress that occasionally, a nurse or two will run back into the hospital to give urgent care to patients, as life-saving procedures cannot be interrupted by strike action. That being said, their absence is already inconveniencing patients up and down the country.
The strikes are not only about pay, but working conditions. There has been a staffing crisis in the health service ever since the first Conservative government introduced austerity way back in 2010. The NHS and social care services have not had appropriate levels of staffing for over a decade, and the incredible toll that has had on workers is now coming to a head.
Hospitals are running out of space. Patients who are medically well enough to leave, but require assistance from social care services once they do leave, are not able to receive that care due to low staffing levels in the social care service. Healthy patients are therefore taking up valuable space on wards, whilst patients on the brink die in ambulances waiting outside.
The root of the problem is pay: if NHS staff were paid more and able to keep up with the cost of living, the jobs would be more attractive, less would leave for the private sector, and more would join up, leading to an easing of pressures across the NHS. But the pool of money the Treasury has at its disposal is rapidly drying up, and any significant pay rise in the NHS would contribute to already drastic inflationary pressures.
However, the RCN has stated that they will call a stop to the strikes if the Government simply agrees to discuss pay with their leadership. They have, so far, refused to do so. They say that NHS pay is handled by the independent Pay Review Body, and it would be improper for the Government to intervene with any independent process.
This fails to take into account that budgets for the PRB are set by the Treasury, and its members can only be appointed if recommended by a sitting member, the Health Secretary, or the Prime Minister. The Government has offered a pay rise of around 4% to nurses, while the RCN is demanding 19%. This figure is obviously unworkable for the Government, but I do not think the RCN is as committed to it as the Government would have you believe.
The RCN want to discuss pay with the Government. If they were committed to 19%, they wouldn’t want to talk it over at all. This is simply an opening gambit that the nurses plan to ease up on, in an attempt to make the Government increase its figure of 4%. However, the Government is already committed to 4%, and does not wish to compromise at all.
As things stand, the NHS is in the throes of its most serious crisis is years, and will continue to be until the Government reach a deal with the RCN that its members can live with. The Conservatives, however, have no interest in talking with unions, as demonstrated by successive Transport Secretaries failing to ease tensions with rail unions.
This winter poses challenges to nearly every aspect of public life, even to me; 7 of my colleagues have been made redundant in the past week, my own job hanging by a thread. A perfect storm of the War in Ukraine and post-Covid adjustments, exacerbated by monumental economic mismanagement by the Truss Government, has made the UK the runt of developed economies worldwide.
Until the Tories decide they want to stop the strikes, not just resign themselves and the country to them, and simply limit the disruption they are causing, the NHS will not recover in a timely manner. This a political choice being made by the Government, make no mistake, and as with many political choices made by Conservative Governments since 2010, it is ill-judged, lacks foresight, and puts the most vulnerable people in the UK at greater risk.
stay safe
/e