Ukraine experienced more hellish conditions over the New Year period, with both sides inflicting heavy casualties upon the other. This should have been a time of celebration and relaxation for all those who observe it, but in a time of war, there is no celebration in war until victory.
Russia has been intensifying its attacks on civilian targets over Christmas, using Iranian kamikaze drones to cripple Ukrainian energy infrastructure and inflict as much damage as possible.
Kyiv has been targeted by these attacks in recent days, but thanks to ongoing material military support from NATO, Ukraine reports to have intercepted most of the drones, having already shot down more than 80 in the past few days.
The Ukrainians recognise these attacks for what they are; desperate attempts to break their spirits and use the bitter winter cold against civilians. These tactics are brutally familiar to Ukraine at this stage in the war, and if they haven’t worked yet, it is unlikely they will work any time soon.
Only an escalation in the conflict will lead to any serious change in the morale of Ukrainians, and unfortunately, they may have handed the Russians an excuse to do just that.
On New Year’s Day, about 2 minutes after midnight, American-made HIMARS rockets hit a building in Russian-occupied Donetsk being used as both a base for Russian conscripts and as an ammunition dump, causing huge casualties and levelling the building.
Russia has publicly admitted that 63 of its servicepeople were killed int he attack, whilst Ukraine claim the number was as high as 400. It is extremely rare for the Kremlin to admit to casualties of any kind, but this incident was so severe that they had to speak up.
The Russians killed were all conscripts; those that had not volunteered to fight, but had been mobilised by the government.
In another rare occurrence, the loss of these soldiers has been heavily criticised by both military and political commentators in Russia, and by current and former Russian lawmakers.
It has been deemed a failure of both air defence systems and of military intelligence, as well as woefully poor planning by the military. Housing such a high volume of troops in a single place so close to the frontline, in the same building as ammunition dumps, shows that Russia is still suffering from incompetency at high levels of its command structure.
The exact numbers are yet to be revealed, but this substantial loss of life for the Russians will serve to both foment greater anti-war sentiment in Russia, and surely lead to an escalation from Russia in retaliation.
Leaders of both nations delivered defiant and forthright New Years speeches, with Putin’s being the more foreboding of the two. He stood in front of stony-faced Russian servicemen and women, accusing the west and NATO of stoking and prolonging the conflict, not showing any signs of backing down from the war that he started.
His speech was emblematic of what Putin’s Russia is becoming; a state focused around the military, as it was in the 1940s. Victory at all costs has become his raison d’etre, against what he sees as an aggressive and inherently anti-Russian west.
Doubtless, a significant escalation will come soon. Military failure on the battlefield is not an option for Putin, and whilst continued Ukrainian success is something I am happy to see, I fear what Putin will do if victory becomes impossible for Russia.
He has threatened the world with the nuclear option before, and reports indicate his health and mental health are steadily deteriorating. He has also said that a world without Russia is not a world worth living in.
The only way for this conflict to safely and swiftly end is from inside Russia. Hopefully, what little opposition that remains in Russia will conclude that the war is no longer worth fighting, and bring Putin down from the inside.
stay safe, and Happy New Year
/e