Already 2024 is shaping up to become one of the most consequential years in recent British political history, and it isn’t even Spring yet. In these brief few weeks we have already seen three by-elections, unprecedented scenes in the House of Commons over Gaza, and a furthering of the self-inflicted disintegration of the Conservative party. With the general election looming and collective anxiety in Westminster rising accordingly, the time is right to take stock of where British politics finds itself before the democratic plunge.
Most of the furore generated recently has come from the 3 by-elections held so far in 2024, in the constituencies of Kingswood in Gloucestershire, Wellingborough in Northamptonshire, and Rochdale in Greater Manchester. Three thumping losses for the Tories, two historic wins for Labour, all contributing to the ever-growing sense of doom lurking around the next corner for this Government. I have previously expressed my hesitance to accept that a landslide win is as guaranteed for Labour as some may suggest, and whilst I am still not convinced that a majority of the size achieved by the Tories in 2019 is a done deal yet, my anxieties are ever more assuaged with each Labour victory, and more importantly, each Tory defeat. A win is certain, but a commanding majority is not, which is what is needed for real change to be affected swiftly.
The one victory that drew most people’s eye was that of George Galloway and his “Worker’s Party of Britain”, a shocking result which has seen one of the most divisive and odious politicians in modern British politics return to the House of Commons after a 9 year hiatus. Galloway, who has taken a number of highly controversial positions over the years. He expressed support for Saddam Hussein during the Gulf War, he was a vocal supporter of Brexit in the 2016 referendum and subsequently supporting Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, and has been employed at different times by Russia Today and Iranian state broadcaster Press TV, both nations he has also recently expressed support for. He has regularly engaged in overt anti-Zionism, sometimes bordering on outright antisemitism, and has always been one of Israel’s loudest critics in the UK. Rochdale is a seat with a large Muslim minority, and once Labour’s candidate, Azhar Ali, had the party’s support withdrawn after his own antisemitic comments emerged, Galloway was able to capitalise on pro-Palestinian attitudes in the seat and secure a majority of 5,700 votes.
Doubtless, if Ali hadn’t have said what he said, the seat would have been an easy Labour win, but Galloway is known for capitalising on anti-Israeli sentiment to secure wins. I do not predict that he will retain the seat after the upcoming general election, but his victory here certainly highlights to Labour the importance of candidate discipline, especially in the precarious position the party finds itself in. A 20-25 point lead in the polls may sound like a strong place to be for an opposition party, but in reality, they have everything to lose, and not much more to gain. One national scandal, a few controversial candidates, an incorrect line against majority public opinion, and the lead will shrink back to squeaky-bum levels. The profound lack of complacency within Labour is certainly beneficial, but it’s not just to maintain discipline. The polls will narrow once the election is called and the Conservatives pull the lever on the industrial-strength manure spreader that is their campaign machine. Once that happens, military party discipline will be vital for Labour’s victory, and therefore for the benefit of the British people.
Even if Labour make any more faux pas before the election, they are only one of a litany of opponents facing the Conservative Party, the most immediate and daunting challenger being…the Conservative Party. Even as the polls crumble around their ears, as seat after seat tumbles into the hands of opposition parties, these Tories can’t stop tearing lumps out of each other. Whilst Labour is no stranger to factionalism, civil war has been the business of the day for the governing party for years, showing no signs of stopping any time before Britons go to the polls. If anything, they seem to enjoy fighting each other more than the people they’re meant to be fighting.
The focal point of much of this infighting has been the much maligned and ridiculed MP for Ashfield, former Labour councillor “30p” Lee Anderson. Anderson is known nationally for his unashamed xenophobia and inaccurate comments about cost of living pressures, but he recently crossed the line and was thrown out of the party last month for accusing London Mayor Sadiq Khan and Labour leader Keir Starmer of being “controlled” by Islamist extremists, without presenting any evidence. These comments, especially as directed towards Khan, were immediately called out for their bigotry and Islamophobia, and the party whip was withdrawn from Anderson the following day.
Interestingly, Rishi Sunak stopped short of calling the comments racist, instead calling what Anderson said “wrong”. This is quite typical of a Conservative Prime Minister, a party which has never had to rely on, and therefore never had much engagement with, the Muslim community in the UK. In fact, one of the Tories’ best shots at winning more votes will be to capitalise on the fears and prejudices of Middle England, so it is in Sunak’s best interest not to call out racism in his ranks when it makes headlines. The Tories will lose as many votes to the odious, fear-mongering, populist Reform UK as they will to Labour, and the best damage limitation strategy they have on the right wing is to lean into the bigotry. I was quite surprised they got rid of Anderson after these comments. He’d certainly still be crowing from the Government backbenches if Johnson or Truss were still at the helm.
Anderson’s expulsion has served as a catalyst for the deepening divisions within the Conservative Party, not only due to the party’s historic problem with Islamophobia (an issue as serious as Labour’s previous problem with antisemitism, for which I expect there will be a similar reckoning), but also because the Tory membership, that beacon of rationality and tolerance, largely supports Anderson and his comments.
This war between the more sensible, centrist, One-Nation Tories, and the membership-pressured right of the party, with their innumerable factions and Cosa Nostra-style plotting, has defined Tory politics for at least the last decade. Government Ministers are constantly forced to walk the thinnest of lines between kowtowing to their largely xenophobic members and being actual sensible politicians, Brexit being the most representative symptom of this phenomenon. The dark hole of culture wars and gender issues are another area of contention for the Tories, with one side of the party kicking up as much fuss and stoking as much fearful division as possible to galvanise voters terrified of men in dresses, and the pragmatists in the centre who really don’t care about it that much.
Anderson’s comments are also controversial due to their relation to perhaps the most significant story in the world at present; the war in Gaza. What 30p Lee was cackhandedly trying to say was that Labour, due to its historic sympathies for the Palestinian people, are servile to Islamist extremists due to the extreme pressure placed on Labour MPs by their more incensed constituents to support a ceasefire, a real ceasefire, not a “humanitarian pause”.
Anderson made this point tactlessly, dog-whistling so loud even the deafest of hounds heard him. But, I must say although I disagree with the underlying point, it is worthy of discussion. Working for an MP myself, I can say from first-hand experience that the danger is real, and although my office has not had any protests staged outside or death threats posted through the letterbox, I know colleagues in other areas who have experienced such activity. This is a policy issue which infuriates people more than most, and passions run high whenever politicians make statements or place votes one way or the other.
This all came to a head during the Opposition Day debate on 21 February, where the SNP tabled a motion calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the immediate release of all Israeli hostages held by Hamas, and “an end to the collective punishment of the Palestinian people”. The SNP have tabled similar motions on this issue recently, all with the secondary aim of stoking divisions within the Labour Party, their main opposition in Scotland, and this was no different. A rational person would read the SNP’s motion and agree; the Palestinian people are being collectively punished by Israel for the actions of Hamas and other extremist groups on October 7th, and it is right that the world recognise this. I plan to go into much further detail on the Gaza situation in a forthcoming article, so I will not labour the point here, but for various procedural reasons, and for Keir Starmer’s abject fear of being accused in any way of antisemitism in his ranks, it was not a motion the Labour leadership could endorse.
However, Labour MPs, for the reasons outlined above, needed to be able to vote for a ceasefire in some form to cool tensions back in their constituencies, but none predicted the course of action the Speaker of the House, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, would take. In a huge break form convention, the lifeblood of the British political system, Hoyle allowed amendments to the SNP’s motion to be tabled by both the Leader of the Opposition and the Prime Minister, changing the text of the motion to “immediate humanitarian ceasefire” and “immediate humanitarian pause”, respectively. Both the Labour and Conservative amendments omit the line about collective punishment, which if passed, would be tantamount to accusing Israel of war crimes, something neither major party is prepared to do.
This Opposition Day debate was the SNP’s chance to reiterate its call for an end to the bloodshed in Palestine, whilst also throwing Labour under the bus as their MPs would be whipped against voting for the motion. The Speaker, in what has been labelled by both the SNP and the Tories as a clear act of favouritism, has allowed Labour to create its own motion, which subsequently passed, robbing the SNP of their opportunity to have their voices clearly heard.
The main (and if one believes Mr Speaker, the only) reason he allowed Labour to do this, was to avoid the potential of violence against Labour MPs, but the political benefit to Labour in this situation surplus to this is obvious. Starmer was facing a massive rebellion of around 100 MPs, including many Shadow Ministers who would have had to resign their posts over this issue, a rebellion larger than the last SNP motion on Gaza, which saw 56 Labour MPs rebel, and a handful of Shadow Frontbenchers resign. With the Labour motion passing, Starmer has avoided this potential embarrassment, and also ensured that his party can be seen voting in favour of a motion calling for a ceasefire.
Expectedly, the SNP, especially their Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, were outraged that on the SNP’s own Opposition Day, their motion was disregarded in favour of the main parties. Flynn accused the Speaker of disregarding the SNP’s voices, and has stated that he has lost confidence in Hoyle’s Speakership, calling on him to resign his post. The Conservatives withdrew their motion in the wake of this scandal and did not vote when the division lobbies emptied, meaning that on a day where a constructive and meaningful debate on the horrific loss of innocent life in Gaza was meant to be held, no such debate took place, replaced instead with shouting matches, mountains of tiresome procedure, sound and fury. No agreements, no action, no meaningful discussion. This was the House of Commons at its worst.
If ever a year offered a more eventful first two months in UK politics, none spring to mind which surpass January and February 2024. One would expect nothing less from an election year, especially for the first general election post-pandemic and post-Brexit. The world has changed immeasurably since 2019, as have the attitudes of the British people. Frankly, if 2024 didn’t offer the fireworks one would expect of such a moment, I’d be disappointed. As a Labour man and a left-winger, I must admit to my excitement for what the rest of this year holds. I cannot wait to get my teeth stuck into this general election when it is called. A Labour victory is long overdue, and whilst the aforementioned lack of complacency still holds true, the excitement amongst my comrades is palpable. I just wish Rishi would hurry up and call the damn thing, not least because I need to be working through the election, and I still haven’t sorted out my holiday plans.
stay safe
/e