If you weren’t already nervous about the situation in the Middle East before, you should be now. Iran and Israel have each been filling the regional keg with gunpowder for decades, and the fuse leading to it has been cut shorter and shorter with each recent escalation. These two nations have been playing with fire for months now, but Iran may have just lit the match.
Around midnight on Saturday, April 13, around 330 weapons, including drones and missiles, were launched by Iran and its proxies at Israel, mostly from Iranian territory, but some from Iran-linked groups in Iraq, from Hezbollah in Lebanon, and from the Houthis in Yemen. All but a handful of these weapons, about 99%, were intercepted by the Iron Dome, Israel’s air defence system, as well as by Israeli fighter jets. The US and UK also scrambled jets to intercept a few missiles, as did neighbouring Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Those Iranian weapons that were not intercepted caused only minimal damage to two airbases in the southern Israeli desert, and only one casualty as been reported; a 7 year old Israeli Bedouin girl who was injured by shrapnel from an intercepted missile, and is reported to still be alive. This the first time since 1991 that Israel has been directly attacked by the military of another nation state, in the largest ever drone attack to date.
After this attack, a full regional war in the Middle East looks even more likely than it did after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October. Whilst utterly condemnable as a needlessly escalatory provocation in an already tense situation, Iran’s attack was not unforeseen. This is a retaliation for an attack conducted by the Israelis, an airstrike on the Iranian Consulate building in their Embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, which killed 7 high-ranking Iranian military officials. All of these men were commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, including one Mohammed Reza Zahedi of the IRGC’s elite Quds Force, Iran’s answer to the SAS or Seal Team 6.
Israel, whilst all the world knows it was them, have still not claimed responsibility for this attack. Whilst it did not necessarily break any written international law, it did break the longstanding convention that an attack on an Embassy or Consulate, sovereign territory of nation states within other nation states, is a big no-no. That being said, if Iran was using their Consulate to conduct foreign military operations seeking to harm Israel, this also was a breach of convention. So in that sense, both sides have broken the rules, setting a dangerous precedent for the gradual erosion of the unwritten rules of war in the region.
The consulate building Israel hit was said to have been used by the IRGC in aiding groups including Hezbollah and Hamas in their fight against Israel. This bombing and Zahedi’s assassination, the most high-profile since Qasem Soleimani’s death at the hands of the Americans in 2020, marked an significant escalation in the already tense cold war between Iran and Israel. Iran bankrolls all the groups in the region fighting the Israelis, in varying levels of intensity. Hezbollah, the Houthis, and of course Hamas, the perpetrators of the 7 October massacre. Iran sits at the centre of this web, the source of Israel’s woes, the main benefactor of the so-called “Axis of Resistance”.
Even though Iran launched this attack, the sides to this potential war are far from even. Any such conflict wouldn’t last long; Israel is ready for war, it always is, but Iran is certainly not. They’d lose this fight, and they know it. As such, the strike this Saturday was far from a declaration of war. Iran has sought to retaliate for the 1 April attack on its consulate only, to settle the score as it were. Indeed, the Iranian spokesperson to the US has said they consider this the end of the matter, and will not pursue further military action.
The domestic factors within Iran at play here are also to blame for their attack. The Iranian economy is slumping, and has been for some time. Their leadership is hugely unpopular, with public dissatisfaction still bubbling under the surface after the widespread female-led protests of 2022/23, with the government failing to markedly improve quality of life for Iranian citizens. Their attack was to pacify those more hawkish parts of Iranian society that have been calling for strong action against Israel ever since 7 October.
Despite their rashness in carrying out their strike, they’ve been clear they are not looking for more violence. Also, after Israeli spokespeople have failed to deny it, it even looks like Iran gave forewarning to Israel that they were launching these weapons, which is not the kind of favour you’d expect from a nation looking for a proper fight.
If Israel was to retaliate, they’d do so in diplomatic isolation. US President Biden has said the US will not support any retaliatory strikes by Israel, instead calling for a “united diplomatic response” to Iran, convening a meeting of G7 leaders in Italy later this week to organise sanctions against them. This was a win for Israel after all; they foiled this attack almost perfectly, with no loss of life for them or their allies.
However, this smacks somewhat of wishful thinking by the Iranians. If they are hoping for cooler heads to prevail, they obviously haven’t been watching the news lately. Israel is the world leader of disproportionate responses. Their actions in Gaza prove this. Over 33,000 dead, 90% of those civilians, mostly women and children. 1.9 million Palestinians displaced. A manmade famine brought about by the wilful withholding of food, aid, and water. Credible evidence of war crimes committed by Israeli troops.
Not only this, but going to war with Iran is in Netanyahu’s best interest. The Israeli PM is unpopular because of Gaza. Not only had he contributed to a humanitarian disaster, he has not secured victory, even after the tens of thousands of civilian bodies have been counted. There are still over a hundred Israeli hostages still held by Hamas and others, which he, in the eyes of the voting public, has failed to bring home. Hundreds more Israeli soldiers are dead, with no victory against Hamas to show for it. If an election was held in Israel, Likud, Bibi’s governing party, would likely lose badly. If a full-on war with Iran were to be started, it would give him an excuse to postpone democracy, claiming his status as a wartime leader too important to jeopardise.
The domestic pressure on Bibi is almost as intense as the international pressure. The US, UK, EU, traditional Israeli allies are growing more hawkish over Gaza, threatening to withdraw their support entirely if greater effort to save civilian lives and provide aid is not taken. There has been a renewal of western support following Iran’s attack, but not insomuch as turning a blind eye to the ongoing atrocities in Gaza.
That being said, Israel has acted independently of the US before, successfully at that, and wouldn’t squeam at doing so again. Netanyahu wants this fight; it is not in his personal interest to do nothing. If he escalates, more will die, but he will survive.
After years of indirect conflict, of engaging via proxies and covert ops, Iran’s attack, and arguably Israel’s strike on 1 April, has opened the proverbial Pandora’s Box. The world waits with baited breath for Bibi’s next move. No one else (perhaps except for Vladimir Putin in Russia, for obvious reasons) wants this war to start. Such action by Israel would be shallow and petty, not to mention foolish. If he’s looking to exact revenge, a defining and worrying trait of the Israeli state these days, more strikes on Iranian military targets in the wider region would be preferable to a direct attack on Iran. For example, Hezbollah in Lebanon is arguably a greater threat to Israel at present, willing and able to exact a greater toll on Israel than Iran at this moment.
If Bibi wants to look tough for his thuggish cabinet, he can do so without needlessly placing Israeli lives in danger by starting a war. He needs to focus on ending operations in Gaza. That’s where Israel has the most skin in the game. Literally, as hostages still languish in captivity. Hezbollah threaten an attack from the north, and the Houthis to the south. By comparison, Iran poses no great direct threat. If he’s smart, he’ll focus on the real threats, not pursue an ideological conflict with Iran for selfish reasons.
Even if he does start this war, it’s a stay of execution only. Starting a war with Iran won’t defeat Hamas, it won’t pacify Hezbollah, it won’t bring the hostages home. It also won’t guarantee his popularity improving among voters. Is Bibi really that short-sighted? Will he risk losing even more of his international support, including from those helping to protect his people? US warships in the eastern Mediterranean are doing just that, as are British ships alongside them. Will he really risk the lives of his people for his pride? If Netanyahu pushes his luck and goes for it, causing allied ships to sail home, if Iran retaliates with more missiles and drones, and if those weapons that could have been shot down by the Brits and Americans get through the Iron Dome, that’s exactly what will happen.
stay safe
/e