The Situation in Afghanistan
On the 15th of August 2021, Taliban forces marched into Kabul, the capital of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. The capture of the city came after the staggeringly swift takeover of most of the provincial capitals, leaving only one, Bazarak, in the hands of the former government. The fall of Afghanistan once again to the Taliban coincided with the planned withdrawal of US and NATO troops from the country, following the 2020 Doha agreement between the Taliban and the Trump Administration. The agreement was upheld by the Biden Administration, and the last NATO soldiers are scheduled to leave Afghanistan on August 31st. The president of the Islamic Republic, Ashraf Ghani, fled the country just hours before the Taliban reached the city limits. The only territory still held by US and NATO forces is the airport at Kabul, where a humanitarian crisis is developing as thousands of Afghans race towards the only avenue away from Taliban rule.
The Western Perspective
The governments of all nations with troops in Afghanistan have stated that the evacuation of their citizens is their main concern, and many have pledged to take in a number of refugees, with those who aided military operations, such as interpreters, given priority. The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has come as a shock to apparently everyone except the Taliban, with senior western leaders such as US President Biden and UK Prime Minister Johnson expressing shock at the speed of the Taliban’s movements. Perhaps what President Biden meant was he had hoped the Taliban’s advance would be slower than predicted. President Biden also dismissed comparisons between the 1975 fall of Saigon, saying that the two situations are “not at all comparable.” On Sunday August 15th, the day the Taliban entered the capital, US Embassy staff and other personnel were airlifted to safety via Chinook and Blackhawk helicopter. Regardless of the efforts of foreign governments, Afghans are now gathering in their thousands at US-held Kabul Airport, now the only part of Afghanistan still under foreign military control. A humanitarian crisis is quickly developing around the airport, as those seeking to flee the country hopelessly wait outside with any document that remotely connects them with a western nation. Most will never escape Afghanistan by air.
Who’s to Blame?
The blame for the Taliban’s successes and the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan has largely been laid at the feet of US President Biden. His critics argue that the US’s approach to their troop withdrawal was not measured or effective, and that western intelligence agencies either hugely underestimated the Taliban’s ability to gain ground, or overestimated the Afghan security forces’ ability to hold ground, or both. It has recently been revealed however, that President Biden was briefed on the 13th of August that the Taliban had the potential to reach Kabul within seven days. They argue that if US forces had cancelled plans to leave, by their mere presence the Taliban would not have even tried a large scale attack. By the US legitimising the Taliban through negotiating with them via the Doha Agreement, and then by withdrawing troops and expecting the Afghan security forces to do just as well as them, the US emboldened them twofold. However, the decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan was made by the Trump Administration, and one of the very few policies Biden and then-President Trump agreed upon. It was also broadly supported by the public and both houses of Congress, so it made sense that Biden went ahead with Trump’s plans. The situation in Afghanistan is there because of a lack of foresight, both by the Presidents and those who supported this policy.
Afghanistan the Unconquerable
The main excuse President Biden has been using to deflect criticism is that there would never be a good time to leave Afghanistan, so best to get it done now rather than wasting more NATO lives trying to improve an unimprovable situation. The US and other NATO member states have been present in Afghanistan for twenty years; if they could not find a way to establish peace in the country in that time, it is not likely they will find a way in the near future. On top of that, Afghanistan is seen to be an unconquerable nation. Nicknamed ‘the graveyard of empires’, it has, time and time again throughout history, not been successfully or permanently annexed or controlled by anyone, not only the Americans and NATO. The USSR, the British Empire, the Sikhs, the Mughals, the Mongols, even Alexander the Great, and the ancient Achaemenid Persians, all failed to hold the mountainous region. Those who have attempted to conquer it were often subjected to economic and political decline shortly afterwards, usually owing to the expense of campaigning in Afghanistan. Biden also believes that the US’s combat mission in Afghanistan was successful, despite this withdrawal. The primary objective of the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 was to oust terrorist factions from the country, and ensure that Afghanistan will never again be used as a training ground for international terror. This mission has indeed been successful, with no terror attack being launched from Afghanistan since 2005. In addition to this, the Taliban have stated that they will ensure that no one will be permitted to use Afghan soil for terrorist activities. However, the Taliban itself is a designated terrorist organisation, but seem to only be interested in Afghanistan, and not spreading their version of Islam, like al-Qaeda or ISIS.
No Bright Future
Things are definitely going to get worse before they get better for Afghanistan, but scholars and commentators like myself have been saying that for thousands of years. The Taliban’s version of Islam, and their policies and practices should not be permitted under any circumstance. The fact that a nation is allowed to operate under laws as outdated and inhumane as those of the Taliban is a threat to the international order, and they should never have been allowed to retake power. The conditions that the entire nation is currently being subjected to are not conducive for the overall betterment of human society. However, as Biden says, there would never be a good time to leave Afghanistan, and if a solution to the problem has not already been discovered, it is unlikely one will reveal itself if they stay. The whole situation leaves one with a bitter taste in the mouth. It’s the classic ‘damned if we do, damned if we don’t’ situation, and the path that the US has chosen is the one that the rest of the world has to follow.
stay safe
/e
